2022 – the year of the fanatics and the fed-up
2022 is going to be an interesting year. It should be the year when interest rates in the United States (US) start to rise, and, of course, COVID-19 is still with us. The following are the key flash points to watch out for:
Russia and Ukraine
According to most sources, Russia has about 170 000 troops near or on the border with Ukraine. With a lot of heavy equipment close to the border as well, invasion could happen at any time. US President Joe Biden has had two conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin on this issue, and issued stern warnings on the economic consequences for Russia if it invades, such is the nervousness in the West.
Why is Putin, the master chess player and strategist, ramping up tensions like this? There are many reasons. First, he likes to keep major Western countries off-balance. Escalating tensions on the Ukraine border and then de-escalating them when he gets the concessions he wants, achieves exactly this. No one in the West can afford to ignore Russia. More importantly, by forcing Biden to meet him and treat him like an equal, Putin ensures he’s seen as a world statesman and Russia as a world power. That plays very well to his audience back home and gets him much-needed support at a time when economic conditions aren’t good. Second, Putin generally wants some concession from the West on Ukraine. Any student of history knows that when Russia was invaded by Hitler, one of the main routes of invasion was through the Ukraine. Putin isn’t going to allow any repeat of that, unlikely as it might be. Russia sees this as an existential issue. He wants a neutral Ukraine, not part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), something the West won’t agree to. He therefore raises the temperature every so often to pressurise the West into making some concession in this regard. At the very least, Ukraine won’t be joining NATO in the foreseeable future.
Although full invasion is unlikely, with two armies facing each other across a very informal border, things can get out of control quickly. This will probably remain the most tense area in 2022.
The Economist recently ran a headline edition describing Taiwan potentially as the most dangerous place on earth. China claims that Taiwan belongs to it and sees it as a breakaway province that must “come back home”. The people of Taiwan want it to remain a sovereign state, although it isn’t recognised by most of the rest of the world. There’s little room for compromise, apart from the current tense status quo in which Taiwan doesn’t declare independence and China still talks about “one China”. Things have been getting more unstable recently, with many academics and even US generals starting to talk openly about a potential invasion.
While, again, invasion is highly unlikely this year, the temperature will remain hot, with the Chinese Air Force testing Taiwanese defences regularly by ramping up flights into its air-defence zone.
Israel and Iran
One must know the world is unstable when Israel and Iran are only item three on the flashpoint list! Things have been very tense here for a long time, with the two sides in a low level, behind-the-scenes shadow war. However, matters are now coming to a head with Iran now openly amassing a stockpile of enriched uranium that’s many times larger than permitted, including at least 17.7kg of material enriched to 60% purity – just below the level needed for a nuclear bomb.
This means that the clock is ticking, and at some point, if Iran doesn’t rejoin the JCPOA (the nuclear deal with the US, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Germany), Israel will have to make a decision on taking more drastic action. Although crossing the nuclear threshold doesn’t mean Iran can immediately attack Israel as it still needs to obtain the technology to send the bomb on a missile, Israel is unlikely to take the chance and wait. As soon as that nuclear threshold is close to being crossed, it will probably act. It would prefer to act together with the US and not alone as an attack on Iran would stretch it to the limits of its capacity. That’s why it has delayed to this point. However, don’t expect it to last forever. As soon as Iran approaches the nuclear threshold, the tension will ratchet up dramatically.
There are some interesting elections scheduled this year. The French presidential elections take place in April, in which incumbent President Emmanuel Macron faces the traditional threat from the right wing in Marine Le Pen, but also this time from the far right in the form of Éric Zemmour. Things might go calmly, and Macron might have to run off against centrist Valérie Pécresse, but if Zemmour does well in the polls, it will portray a swing to the right in the heart of Europe. The election has the potential to increase tension in France if Zemmour does better than expected.
Then there’s an election in Hungary in April/May. Populist incumbent Viktor Orbán faces a real threat from a united opposition this time. It will be a close election for the first time in years in Hungary, and is unlikely to be a quiet affair.
Finally, Brazil faces an election in October. Current President Jair Bolsonaro, known by many as “the Trump of the tropics”, is lagging his main rival in the polls. If he loses, he might not go quietly and there might well be a Trump-style challenge to the election results. American democracy was shaken by Trump’s actions last January in refusing to concede defeat, and Brazil might face the same. The only difference is that the US’s democratic institutions (the courts, local governors, and electoral institutions) are vastly experienced and have been developed over hundreds of years. They were able to stand firm. Brazil’s institutions are less experienced as it is a far younger democracy. Things might get really uncertain in Brazil come October.
2022 promises to be an interesting year geopolitically. Overlay this with the fact that COVID-19 will soon have run for more than two years, mass exhaustion with all the restrictions – even if they are necessary for public health – and we have the scene set for an unpredictable, combustible year. A combination of unstable international politics and an angry population worldwide will make for some interesting developments in international affairs. The riots which broke out in the previously stable country of Kazakhstan as this story went to press, and which threatened the stability of the government, are a perfect example of this.
- Harry Joffe is a Johannesburg tax and trust attorney.
Lithuania, admit it, my grandfather was a monster
The woman I thought I was prior to beginning my research for The Nazi’s Granddaughter: How I Discovered My Grandfather Was a War Criminal no longer exists.
That woman was proud to be a Lithuanian, basking in the can-do attitude of the people who overcame so much to be who they are today – a free and independent nation that’s part of the European Union and NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation).
While growing up in Chicago in a Lithuanian community, I was raised to love Lithuania and to do all I could to help the country that was then occupied by the Soviet Union. It’s one of the reasons I decided to become a journalist – it fed my fantasy of writing about this small country so the rest of the world could hear about it.
I started out as the granddaughter of Jonas Noreika, a Lithuanian hero who fought against the Communists in 1941 and won, and who fought again against the Communists in 1946, and lost.
He was arrested by the KGB, taken to their prison, tortured, and then shot twice in the back of the skull. Having died a martyr for Lithuania’s freedom, he has a school and streets named after him as well as the Cross of the Vytis, the highest honour anyone can receive posthumously.
As a young girl, I believed my grandfather to be one of the most splendid heroes of all time. As an adolescent, I was proud to be connected to his glorious name. But then, as an adult, the unspeakable truth of my grandfather’s role in Lithuania’s Holocaust was revealed to me.
It started out as just a whisper of a rumour that Jonas Noreika was involved in killing Jews, and eventually, I reluctantly confirmed that it was much more than hearsay.
I looked at countless documents, spoke to his colleagues and family members, and pieced his life together, careful to take note of what was going on around him while he was in charge. To my dismay, I concluded that everywhere he was in charge during the Nazi occupation, thousands of Jews were murdered.
The woman I have become after diligently conducting an investigation into my grandfather’s life is radically different. Today, I have come to accept that I’m the granddaughter of a Lithuanian monster, one who participated in the murder of 8 000 to 15 000 Jews in Plungė, Telšiai, and the district of Šiauliai.
While in Plungė, he was the komandantas (commander), and ordered the killing of 2 000 Jews. He was also in charge in Telšiai, and sanctioned the killing of 2 000 Jews there. While governor of the Šiauliai district, he facilitated the murder of 4 000 Jews as well as working to distribute their property.
The government of Lithuania is engaged in Holocaust denial and revisionism, and heralds him as a national hero. He enjoys mythological status in the country. An intricate web of lies has been written about him while totally negating his horrendous deeds. What the government of Lithuania has done regarding my own grandfather is one of the greatest criminal cover-ups in history.
Truth and reconciliation
As a practicing Catholic, I simply had to do the right thing – write the truth no matter how painful and shameful it was. My greatest hope is that this book will light the flame of truth for Lithuania to recognise the terrible history of the Shoah as it unfolded in 1941.
Once this is truly recognised, and it will take time, it will allow the crucial healing process to begin for all Lithuanians. True reconciliation between Lithuanians and Jews can be based only on truth.
I know that I’m not responsible for my family and national guilt. Nonetheless, I feel humiliation, guilt, remorse, and overwhelming sadness.
I promise I’ll do everything I can to make certain that the truth about my grandfather will be the only story of his life. The little girl that never met her grandfather but was raised to idolise him is now grown up and willing to tell the truth.
I implore the Lithuanian government to do the same. The cover-up and rewriting of history must be brought to an end.
United Nations report on Holocaust denial
In a related development, The United Nations General Assembly released a report on Holocaust denial on 13 January 2022. Lithuania signed this report, thus agreeing to the following points:
- To reaffirm its resolution 60/7 of 1 November 2005 that remembrance of the Holocaust is a key component of the prevention of further acts of genocide, and to recall that ignoring the historical facts of those terrible events increases the risk that they will be repeated;
- To note that distortion and/or denial of the Holocaust refers, inter alia, to intentional efforts to excuse or minimise the impact of the Holocaust or its principal elements, including collaborators and allies of Nazi Germany; and
- To urge all member states to reject without any reservation any denial or distortion of the Holocaust as a historical event, either in full or in part, or any activities to this end.
My hope is that Lithuania will stop excusing and minimising my grandfather’s role in the Holocaust as a collaborator of Nazi Germany who worked enthusiastically to murder thousands of Jews under his watch.
- Silvia Foti is author of the memoir, The Nazi’s Granddaughter: How I Discovered My Grandfather Was a War Criminal, released by Regnery History in March 2021. The paperback is coming out with a new title in June 2022: Storm in the Land of Rain: A Mother’s Dying Wish Becomes Her Daughter’s Nightmare. The book is also being released in Lithuanian in February 2022 during the Vilnius Book Fair, titled Vėtra Lietaus šalyje: Jono Noreikos anukės pasakojimai.
If there were distinctions for character, we would have a full house
Matric results. Words that conjure up a plethora of emotions within the Jewish community – the students, their families, teachers, and many excited onlookers. It’s these results that are the culmination of a 12-year journey through the schooling system, representing graduation from one phase of life to the next. For many students, it’s these results that dictate the career path they take. High stakes indeed.
This has been the status quo of matric for decades. It would have been inconceivable two years ago how the educational landscape would change and how matric students would have faced this most important year compounded with additional challenges unlike any group before them. The class of 2021 had their entire Grade 11 and Grade 12 years within a pandemic which was disruptive to say the least. Unpredictable educationally, unsettling socially, and often traumatic emotionally. These results are historic. These students have made history.
Though the results are a testament to the immense talent we have in our community and the superb instruction in the Jewish school system, they speak volumes about the tenacity, will, resilience, and commitment of our youth. They reveal the real success of matric, which is often overlooked.
Matric isn’t a factory for results that adorn the papers and gives parents nachas and schools pride. Matric is a training ground for character development.
This generation is often derided as lazy, self-centred, entitled, and fickle. They are immersed in their screens and their social lives take place primarily in the virtual realm, robbing them – so we say – of meaningful, deep relationships and the ability to connect.
However, perhaps we’re viewing them and the importance of school through a distorted lens. Perhaps this matric class and this generation have the exact temperament and skill set needed to progress, lead, and change our world. Particularly a post-pandemic world.
The pandemic has thrust the world into a state of flux. Our new reality of unpredictability has exposed the fallibility and frailty of governments and industry leaders as they scramble for solutions to contain and reassure their anxious populations and stakeholders. The systems and processes that provided security and predictability for so long no longer do so.
Another critical failing that has been exposed over the past two years is inequality. Rich nations have monopolised vaccine supplies to the detriment of poorer countries. Wealthier citizens have had the ability to respond to the educational, financial, and social consequences of COVID-19, while those below the poverty line continue to languish in its wake with little sign of redemption from these hardships.
This is the context in which our superb class of 2021 is graduating. A world that’s confused, rudderless, and deeply unequal.
When I reflect on my matric experience, it looked fundamentally different to that experienced by students today. I worked hard, but not as hard as them. Acceptance to the course of my choice was a virtual guarantee, not because I was smart, but because there was little competition and there weren’t rigorous quota requirements. I recognised that we were privileged to have attended excellent schools like King David, but I don’t think I was aware of South Africa’s complexity and the challenges it would face as a new democracy. There was a sense of optimism for the future.
Today’s matric students in our Jewish schools work harder then all those that came before them. They face stiffer competition, quota systems, a tougher job market, and a world of uncertainty. They constantly push themselves to achieve greater results, often experiencing tremendous pressure, to ensure that they increase their chances of future success (we will leave discussions about extra-lessons for another time). They have navigated a pandemic and managed to learn online, socialise, and collaborate online – something that has no precedent in modern times.
They have grown up in South Africa, a country in desperate need of leadership. The headlines of corruption, state capture, poverty, inequality, and poor service delivery have been their reading material and Shabbat table talk. They are aware of and encounter this reality daily.
It’s with this perspective that I believe that today’s students are poised to make their mark on society – aided by their matric experience and what it is at its core.
Their social-media exposure has increased the social challenges they have faced, but also, paradoxically, it has helped to develop character. They have been exposed to the entire world – its opportunities and shortcomings – and are more in touch with trends in technology, business, social welfare, (and selfie technique), all in the palm of their hands, more than their parents ever were.
The combination of tenacity and determination needed to pass matric in the face of historic obstacles, the rapid development of digital skills, a flexible mindset, and the awareness of the problems the world faces have truly created – by default and design – a group of young people who have the skills to be the future leaders of our world.
We need a new generation of leaders who understand the digital world and its unlimited promise. Leaders who are empathetic to the plight of others, who are moral and ethical. Leaders who are entrepreneurial and flexible. Leaders who aren’t afraid to work hard, who roll up their sleeves to get the job done.
It’s hard to predict what matric might look like in the future once this pandemic has left us. What we can know with certainty is that our students will need to work harder than ever before, and they will need to be supported by their families and our schools to do so. They will need to increase their skills in the digital sphere and in entrepreneurship, to have more opportunities to do outreach, and more opportunities to develop character and empathy.
Our students have developed these skills on their journey through our Jewish schools, but particularly in matric. While their amazing results are the metric for their hard work and the dedication of their teachers and parents, there’s sadly no objective measure of the character, empathy, and flexibility they have gained over the course of this year. We cannot give them distinctions for being outstanding people of immense potential – but if we could they would get a full house.
Rabbi Chanina in the Mishna in Pirkei Avot (Chapter 3:14) says, “Whoever is fear of sin precedes their wisdom, then their wisdom will last. If their wisdom precedes their fear of sin, their wisdom will fade.” These wise words indicate that in the eyes of the Torah, character and ethical behaviour are both a prerequisite for and the foundation of sustained wisdom. Only results built upon character have lasting value.
I have often been asked whether matric is easier now than it was back then due to the high number of distinctions. I believe that it’s harder than ever. Our kids from this oft-derided generation are just better than we were in more ways than we realise.
- Rabbi Ricky Seeff is the general director of the South African Board of Jewish Education and former principal of King David Primary School Victory Park.
Israel’s path from dream to fear and back again
The dream was simple: Israel’s victory in the 1967 war would lead to victory over war itself.
Many back then believed that the trajectory of the Jewish people would undergo an enlightened shift after the 1967 Six-Day War. The Golan Heights, as well as Judea and Samaria and the Sinai Peninsula, were now in Israel’s hands. Syria, Jordan, and Egypt, which had previously held these territories, now demanded their return. Many saw this desire on the side of the Arabs as an opportunity for the Israelis: for the first time in history, we held solid bargaining chips that if acted upon wisely, could be traded in as part of a peace agreement. The dream was simple: Israel’s victory in the war would lead to victory over war itself.
Peace was thought to alter not just Israel’s fate but also the fate of the Jewish people. Israel would cease to be an isolated state, rather becoming an integral part of the Middle East, and once completely integrated, would also be fully accepted by Europe and the entire West.
By taking destiny into our own hands, Jews’ two-millennia-long estrangement from humanity would finally come to an end, and we would be accepted into the family of nations.
However, it appeared there was another way to reap the benefits of victory. Israel could settle the land rather than exchanging it for peace. Many felt this would transform Jewish history from the bottom up. According to this perspective, a nation isn’t connected to itself when it lives outside of its own land. In other words, there will be a crack in the nation’s soul if the nation’s present doesn’t unfold in the same places as its history.
The early memories of the Jewish people were forged in places like Jerusalem, Nablus, Hebron, and Nazareth, and Israel’s triumph in the 1967 war allowed Jews to return to these areas of the historic homeland. This would establish a living link between the past and the present, and was seen as a process allowing the Jewish people’s wounded and traumatised psyche to heal. It was thought that repairing the nation and settling on ancient soil would also cure the future.
The conflicting ideas behind these two dreams is noticeable, yet they were both supported by a fundamental agreement. Both parties felt that by properly leveraging wartime victory, they could alter the future of the Jewish people.
They had one more thing in common: they were both proven incorrect.
This isn’t a statement to be taken lightly. Israel’s inability to achieve peace by no means fell solely at the feet of the Jewish state. In fact one could argue successfully that continued Palestinian rejection of any two-state solution on offer is what has led to the status quo. Regardless of one’s view, as time passed, these dreams began to fade and more and more Israelis broke free from these two beliefs.
So, what happened to the dreams? To begin with, both the Israeli left and right shifted. Many on the left gave up hope that a peaceful diplomatic solution to the Middle East’s problems was on the horizon. The right was likewise altered. The majority of the right no longer thinks that settlement, even if it fulfils prophecies, will result in tomorrow’s redemption.
There’s another distinct difference – the “blame-game”. Ever since the Second Intifada, many on the left have talked less about peace and more about the harm done by the occupation. Also ever since the 2005 disengagement from the Gaza Strip, the right has talked less about redemption and more about the security threat.
Essentially, in spite of your views on settlement, solution, peace, and security, which traditionally placed you on one side of the aisle or the other, today’s divisions are often based on who is deemed more responsible and essentially to blame for the conflict.
The left’s prevalent position today is that if Israel remains in the territories and continues to govern over a Palestinian civilian population, it will suffer three consequences: moral degradation, diplomatic isolation, and demographic loss.
Most demographers anticipate that the day will soon come when Jews will no longer form a majority in Israeli-controlled territory. Hence, once the Jews become a minority in their own land, it will cease to be their land.
The right frequently responds to this demographic argument with denial, citing alternate demographers which estimate that the Jewish majority isn’t in jeopardy. Even if that’s true, and Palestinians account for “just” 40% of the country’s population, it would be difficult to designate such a country as the nation-state of the Jewish people.
In other words, the desire to cling to the land of Israel defies the self-definition of the state of Israel. One is inclined to admit that this argument possesses tremendous weight.
It’s fascinating to observe how the right and left have become mirror images of each other. The right no longer believes that settling the land will bring redemption, but says withdrawing will bring disaster. The left no longer believes that withdrawing from the territories will bring redemption, but says remaining there will bring disaster. The left and right have undergone similar processes: they have both moved from dreams to fears.
However, new processes have begun to form, the Abraham Accords for one. Those at the centre of the “dreams and fears” debacle seem to have found mutual ground by attempting to replace paralysis with pragmatism.
Though this is based less on a romanticised vision of peace or redemption and rather economics and mutual agreement of the military threat Iran poses to the region, this too, if acted upon wisely, could lead to Israel becoming a fully integrated and accepted part of the Middle East.
As divided as Israeli politics appears, one finds a basic consensus in the needs, desires, and demands of the everyday person on the street regardless of their affiliation.
So, perhaps the dreams aren’t dead but in a process of renewal. Maybe they’re less philosophical and more based on realism, which could be argued is a positive step. Maybe the romantic dreams lie not in political ideology but in the daily exchanges and normalisation between Israeli and Arab citizens from countries that currently constitute the Abraham Accords, and in the hope that more will join soon.
- Samuel Hyde is a political writer based in Tel Aviv, Israel. As an op-ed columnist he has been published in publications both within Israel, the United States, and South Africa focusing on topics such as Israel’s political climate, antisemitism, the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, the Jewish world, conflict resolution, and Jewish pluralism.
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