Impasse or chance for Israeli politicians to lead together?

The results of the recent election in Israel are now final. With the “Netanyahu bloc” ending up with 53 seats – of which the Likud party is by far the biggest with 26 – and the “Eisenkot bloc” on 48 seats, neither is close to getting to a majority of 61 seats on their own. The remaining 19 seats are held by two Arab parties, The Joint List with 11 and Ra’am with eight. Some analysis of the results: 

1. Bibi the great survivor 

Love him or hate him, one cannot deny that Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu is one of the great survivors of Israeli politics. Despite being written off by the media, the academics (who always get Israeli elections wrong), the pollsters, and even the exit polls, his party still managed to remain the largest in the Knesset. This was despite 7 October happening on his watch, that he has refused to allow an independent inquiry into how it was allowed to happen, in addition to numerous corruption cases against him. 

The simple reality is that although many Israelis are supposedly tired of him and his escapades – at least that’s what they tell the pollsters – they still trust him above all the other potential leaders to handle inevitable future conflicts with Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas, as well as numerous other security challenges. 

1. The Arab vote 

Israel’s Arab political parties had their best ever result of 19 seats. This was due to the Arab population’s extremely high turnout of close to 80%. The two Arab parties now hold the balance of power in the Knesset. It’s interesting that the Arab turnout was higher than the Jewish one, no doubt pushed by their hatred of the hard-right elements in the ruling coalition, as well as the very high crime rate in their cities. 

This is a positive development. Contrary to what is going on in Europe with riots and violent public disturbances, the Arabs in Israel are voicing their grievances at the ballot box and trying to peacefully create change. They still clearly feel invested enough in the country to try make change from within the system, using the structures available to them, whereas in the past many had boycotted. 

1. Options going forward 

With neither bloc close to a majority, what options are there to break the deadlock? 

Eisenkot does a deal with the Arab parties 

Although the two Arab parties can get Eisenkot to 67 seats, this is a highly unlikely option. The Joint List contains too many politicians who still don’t recognise Israel as a Jewish State, and refuse to condemn Hamas. While Ra’am is more palatable, their eight seats don’t get Eisenkot over 60. A “confidence and supply” arrangement with the two parties has been spoken about, which would entail them staying out of the government but supporting it from outside, and giving it the votes to pass legislation when needed, but this is still problematic for Eisenkot. First, it isn’t clear that Naftali Bennett or Avigdor Liberman in the bloc would accept this. Second, if the government later fell, it would leave Eisenkot’s bloc open to being castigated at the next election for relying on the Arab parties to rule. 

A government of national unity 

The most positive option is a government of national unity, with Likud, Yashar, B’Yachad, and Yisrael Beiteinu joining together. Such a coalition would have 66 seats, a comfortable majority, and, shorn of the hard left and hard right from either bloc, would be solidly in the centre. 

In reality, the four big parties are really not that different when it comes to policy on Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Gaza, and even the Haredi draft, where Bibi no doubt would be happy to entertain some creative changes to get more Haredim serving, without being constrained by his more right-wing, ex-coalition partners. However, things are not that simple in politics. 

First, the Eisenkot bloc campaigned mainly on change and getting rid of Bibi. Joining such a coalition would entail going back on this promise. 

Second, on Bibi’s side, this would entail jettisoning his erstwhile allies like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich on the hard right, knowing that they wouldn’t forgive him if such a new government fell and he needed to go back to another election. 

The above roadblocks aside, the makeup of such a government could be Bibi as prime minister for the first two years, Eisenkot as deputy prime minister for the first two years – before then taking the top job, which, being a relative political novice, would give him much needed experience – as well as defense minister in the interim, Bennett and Yair Lapid as foreign and finance ministers respectively, with Liberman in charge of the Haredi draft issue. 

Conclusion 

Such a “dream team” is unfortunately still light years away. But it is hoped that senior politicians will put aside their personal differences and do what’s best for Israel. The country cannot afford to go to election 2, and then probably 3. With all the tough challenges, including another likely round with Iran, on the horizon, it needs the adults in the room to stand up, take ownership of the numerous hurdles that lie ahead, and lead with the courage and accountability that this difficult time demands. 

• Baruch The Balanced is an attorney who can’t be named for professional reasons, but who also studied politics and international relations at university.