Is Israel a factor in SA elections?

South Africans have learnt not to take running water, working traffic lights, or reliable electricity for granted. You would think that, with municipal elections approaching, the argument would be about who can actually fix these problems. But it’s Israel that’s being debated. 

Ashley Mama, Johannesburg mayoral candidate for Al Jama-ah, a small Muslim political party, has ruled out working with the DA because of its position on Israel and Palestine. Franco de Lange, the Freedom Front Plus (FF Plus) mayoral candidate for Johannesburg, has ruled out working with the Economic Freedom Fighters and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party, describing them as antisemitic. 

It’s not only in Johannesburg. At a Cape Town mayoral debate last week, Fadiel Adams, leader of the National Coloured Congress (NCC), challenged the DA over its support for Israel, even as candidates debated housing and other municipal concerns. 

These may be important political positions, but they don’t tell residents whether their taps will run or their roads will be repaired. 

For Jewish voters, the question is more complicated. Most are understandably angry about the positions South African political parties have taken on Israel since 7 October. But how much should that anger influence a vote in an election that’s supposed to be about running municipalities? 

I put the question to several Jewish voters and elections analyst Wayne Sussman. 

One voter, who asked not to be named, said service delivery should be the priority and that any party bringing Israel into a municipal campaign would lose his vote. He described the FF Plus as a pleasant surprise because of its condemnation of the 7 October attacks and support for Israel’s right to defend itself. 

Yet when asked whether he would support a party capable of governing effectively if he strongly disagreed with its position on Israel, his answer was an unequivocal “no”. He doesn’t want Israel brought into local government politics, but he isn’t prepared to overlook a party’s position on Israel when deciding how to vote. 

For politicians, Israel may be a foreign policy issue. For Jewish voters, it can be much more personal, touching on identity, security, and antisemitism. 

Sussman is sceptical that positions on Israel and Palestine significantly influence voting patterns. The ANC, for example, has made its support for Palestine a prominent political issue, but Sussman says “there’s little evidence to show that it has helped the ANC in recent elections”. 

He believes the issue may have benefited smaller parties such as Al Jama-ah and the NCC to some extent, but says it hasn’t significantly hurt the DA either. 

Consider the 2024 national elections. The ANC made its support for Palestine a prominent part of its political messaging. South Africa’s case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) was receiving worldwide attention. Yet the ANC lost its parliamentary majority for the first time ever. That doesn’t mean its position on Palestine cost it votes, or that it won votes. Unemployment, corruption, and failing public services were also major issues. 

If campaigning so prominently on Palestine couldn’t prevent the ANC from losing its majority, why assume Israel will determine how South Africans vote in this year’s local government elections? 

Johannesburg businessman Errol Hurwitz offers one possible answer. His opinion of the ANC has hardened since 7 October. Already critical of its record in government, he says its position on Israel and what he regards as antisemitism have strengthened his opposition. Would he support a party capable of running Johannesburg effectively if he strongly disagreed with its position on Israel? 

“No, I wouldn’t vote for them, no matter how well they could run Johannesburg.” 

But has his vote changed? 

“Funny enough, the way I intend to vote hasn’t changed, although my reasons may just have been reinforced.” Israel has strengthened Hurwitz’s existing political allegiance rather than changed it. 

Sussman’s analysis of results in areas with substantial Jewish populations suggests continued strong support for the DA. He cites Sea Point, Glenhazel, Linksfield, Norwood, Oaklands and, to some extent, Umhlanga. 

“There was an idea that Jews were voting for a party like the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP). It gets very little support from the data I’ve observed and seen,” he says. Sussman believes the overwhelming majority of Jewish voters supported the DA in the last election. Neighbourhood results aren’t the same as surveying Jewish voters directly, but they offer some indication of voting patterns. Still, Israel may influence some voters differently. 

Leanne Shulman says her voting intentions have changed since the 2021 municipal elections. She wants “a party invested in South Africa and all its citizens”, one that delivers water, electricity, and infrastructure. But she also wants a party that supports Israel. She is outraged by the ANC’s decision to take Israel to the ICJ and believes the government should concentrate its resources on crime, unemployment, and other South African problems. 

Would she support a party capable of governing effectively if she strongly disagreed with its position on Israel? 

“No. The choices are either to stand with or against humanity,” she insists. 

Shulman’s answer exposes the dilemma. Jewish voters can care deeply about service delivery and still refuse to support a party whose position on Israel they find unacceptable. The two concerns aren’t mutually exclusive, but they can make choosing a party more difficult. 

And what happens when the elections are over? Johannesburg’s municipal government has spent years lurching from one coalition to another, with mayors coming and going. Now, before the votes have even been counted, parties contesting the city are ruling out potential coalition partners over Israel and antisemitism. Will those declarations survive coalition negotiations? 

Sussman doubts it. “I think foreign policy will play a very small role in the coalition negotiations after these elections.” 

He points out that Al Jama-ah is politically closer to the ANC for reasons extending beyond foreign policy. Yet the Patriotic Alliance, which he describes as more pro-Israel and pro-American, also leans towards working with the ANC. The ACDP, another supporter of Israel, tends to work more closely with the DA. Once the votes are counted, coalition arithmetic may matter more than campaign declarations. 

Three interviews cannot tell us how South African Jews will vote. But they suggest that parties’ stances on Israel may reinforce existing political loyalties as much as change them. What matters deeply to voters doesn’t always alter where they place their cross. 

For these voters, Israel and antisemitism aren’t issues they can simply set aside because an election happens to be municipal. They’re part of how they judge a party’s values and credibility. 

But political parties face a test of their own. It’s one thing to rule out coalition partners over Israel and antisemitism during an election campaign. It’s another to maintain those positions when the votes have been counted and negotiations begin. 

For some Jewish voters, Israel is a red line. Will the politicians asking for their votes hold to their own red lines when political power is at stake? 

• Paula Slier is an international journalist, war correspondent, and speaker who has reported from conflict zones across the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. Her work focuses on geopolitics, modern conflict, information warfare, and the battle for truth.