To Bibi or not Bibi? Israel’s next election could be a watershed

Right-wing voters who no longer want Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition to be in power could decide Israel’s election in October. It could also hinge on the cost of living, military service, and whether Netanyahu can once again turn political uncertainty to his advantage. 

Those were among the issues Linda Dayan, Dan Feferman, Roni Fantanesh Malkai, and Amir Sela, explored at a Limmud Cape Town panel titled “Bibi or Not Bibi: The 2026 Israeli Election”, moderated by Wayne Sussman. The panel highlighted how difficult the election is to predict, with the speakers offering sharply different assessments of what voters will prioritise. 

For Malkai, the most important issue is the cost of living. She pointed to the high price of basic goods and argued that political parties should make affordability a central part of their campaigns.  

Sela identified racism and settler violence as major problems facing Israeli society. 

Feferman focused instead on what he described as the question of who carries the national burden. He argued that military service by the Haredi community will be a major election issue.  

The speakers discussed accountability for 7 October. Opposition parties are calling for a state commission of inquiry, but the current government has resisted establishing one. The question of who should take responsibility for the failures surrounding the attack could therefore influence voters. 

A key complication is Israel’s electoral system. Parties must receive at least 3.25% of the vote to enter the Knesset. Several new parties and breakaway groups are therefore fighting to cross the threshold. A party that falls just short receives no seats, potentially changing the balance between political blocs. This has particular significance for the right. Some parties have broken away from Likud, while others are attempting to appeal to voters who remain right-wing but are dissatisfied with Netanyahu. 

Feferman argued that some of these new groups could represent a shift within the Israeli right. He said several politicians leaving Likud are experienced figures who support institutions and the rule of law. He also argued that the traditional left-right labels do not adequately describe Israeli politics today. 

Young voters might further complicate the picture. Dayan said younger Israelis tend to be more conservative on security because many have grown up during periods of war and terrorism. Yet many have also spent hundreds of days in military service since 7 October. This means younger right-wing voters may not automatically support Netanyahu or the parties in his coalition. 

Netanyahu himself remains central to the election. Malkai noted that he continues to command significant support after 7 October, citing polling that placed Likud at about 23 mandates. She argued that his political instincts and ability to respond to changing circumstances should not be underestimated. 

The panel disagreed about who could lead the next government. Malkai predicted that Naftali Bennett might emerge as a strong contender, while another scenario raised was a renewed deadlock between the blocs. Previous elections have produced near 60-60 splits, leaving neither side able to form a government. 

Feferman suggested another possibility: a national unity government led by former Israel Defence Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot and including Likud. He argued that Eisenkot might perform strongly because he is campaigning as a security-focused candidate rather than a representative of the left. 

The discussion ultimately returned to the unpredictability of Israeli politics. The election might strengthen Netanyahu, produce a new right-wing leadership, or once again leave Israel facing a political stalemate. 

For the panel, the central question was therefore not simply whether Israelis would vote for or against Bibi. It was whether the political map that has dominated Israel for years can survive the pressures created by 7 October, the war, and a growing demand for a different kind of leadership. 

• Hear them at Limmud JHB this weekend limmud.org.za