Report’s Israel election pundit had it spot-on
Aubrey’s post-election round-up: “When the last elections were held in 2013, I had prepared my article in advance and found that once the results were out, I had to do a quick rewrite,” he says.
He called 116 of 120 seats
The reason for this was that Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid surprised and won 19 seats becoming a major role player. This time I waited for the results before I wrote this article and, just as well, because there was again a major surprise.
A day before the election, the polls were showing that a gap of five seats has opened up between the Zionist Camp (Labour + Tzipi Livni) and Likud .The media had reported that Likud were panicking. At the time I thought that this was a blessing in disguise as it would galvanise the Likud supporters to get out and vote. After all, who on the right would want to be governed by a left-wing government?
I personally did not share the view that the Zionist camp would be the largest party and my reason was simple. The polls reflected the Zionist Camp gaining about 4/6 extra seats but from whom? For me, they could only gain from Meretz and Yesh Atid. They were unlikely to gain from the right wing and religious parties. So let’s look at the gainers and losers.
RIGHT: Aubrey Katzef’s Monday predictions and explanations thereof
Firstly we need to look at the various groupings.
- Left wing – Zionist Camp and Meretz
- Right Wing – Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu, Bayit Hayehudi, and Yachad,
- Religious parties – Shas and United Torah
- Centre – Yesh Atid (left) and Kulanu (right)
- Arab Joint List
The Zionist camp would have had to gain their extra 4 to 6 seats from either the left or the centre. Meretz were predicted to retain their 6 seats unless their voters believed that it would be better to support a larger left wing party. That is exactly what happened and they only received 5 seats. This occurred in the past when Meretz voters supported Kadimah to avoid Likud becoming the bigger party. In that election they won only 3 seats. Yesh Atid, which I expected to lose, 8 seats did. These seats did not go to the Zionist camp but to Kahlan’s Kulana party.
In the Centre, is the new party Kulanu, headed by the former Likud cabinet minister Moshe Kahlon. They were expected to obtain 8 seats but did even better and got 10 seats. The extra votes may have come from disaffected Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu voters or from the now defunct Kadima party. As mentioned in a previous article, many of the centre voters are unhappy with Yair Lapid, the leader of Yesh Atid. During his short spell as Minister of Finance, he failed to deliver on his election promises. His party received 11 seats, meaning a loss of 8 seats, and they more than likely voted for Kahlon. Kahlon, when he was the Minister of Communications, broke up the cell phone cartels and as a result, cell phone charges in Israel were dramatically reduced and thus his popularity. Voters will be looking forward to Kahlan carrying out his promises to bring down the cost of living.
Let’s look at the right wing gains and losses. Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu lost 7 seats mostly going to Likud. Habayit Hayehudi, I thought, would gain a seat or two but the events of the day proved me wrong and it ended up with 8 seats and a loss of 4.
Likud, of course, was the big winner. Going in to the election with 18 seats they gained 12.
As I predicted, Israel’s Arab voters turned out in greater numbers to support their joint list. Unlike other joint lists, this proved attractive to Israeli Arabs and instead of having three insignificant parties, they now have the third largest party in the Knesset. They increased their representation from 11 to 13 seats.
The results are (with my predictions in brackets):
- RIGHT WING: Likud 30(23), Bayit Yehudi 8(12), Yisrael Beiteinu 6(5), Yachad 0(4) for a total of 44 (44) seats.
- CENTRE RIGHT: Kulanu 10 (8)
- RELIGIOUS: Shas 7 (6), United Torah 6 (7) for a total of 13 (13)
- CENTRE LEFT: Yesh Atid 11 (12)
- LEFT: Zionist Camp 24 (25), Meretz 5 (5)
- ARAB JOINT LIST: 13 (13)
Nu, so where to now?
Netanyahu can now put together a right wing and religious coalition consisting of 67 (65) seats with a left and centre opposition of 40 (42) and Arab parties of 13 (13). The left cannot put together a coalition even if they can enlist the Arab Joint List. This would leave them with 53 seats and I don’t see the other parties joining them.
So how did Bibi Netanyahu pull it off? This was vintage Bibi. He took advantage of the polls which reflected his four to six seats behind Herzog/Livni. Most of the newspapers, especially Haaretz and Yidid Ahranot, had spent the last three months spreading the word how Bibi, his wife and his party were not only bad but especially bad for Israel.
At the last moment Bibi went on the attack and as he was unlikely to attract left wing voters or the centrists, he put out an appeal to the right wing voters: back Likud or the Zionist Camp will become the biggest party and have the first shot at forming a coalition.
The right-wing voters reacted and abandoned support for their own parties and in the last few hours of polling swarmed to vote for Likud.
In the last election, Likud attacked Bayit Yehudi. In this election they refrained from doing so as they now see Bayit Yehudi as a natural partner but they still needed their votes and they got a large number of them to switch to them. Despite the loss of four seats, Bennett, Bayit Ye’hudi’s leader, accepts that it was necessary.
For Bennett the polls cost him dearly. With the Zionist Camp not doing as well as predicted, it was not necessary for the switch to ensure that Likud would turn out to be the largest party.
The press which ran a campaign of villification of Netanyahu was perhaps the biggest loser of all.
Their campaign “Anyone but Bibi” failed and Likud increased its seats from 18 to 30. This means that Likud will hold many more posts in the cabinet and it will be a Likud government rather than a Likud-led government.
Will the government last its term of four years? Who knows?
A day – as we have seen – is a long time in Israeli politics.
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Closer ties between Zim and Israel rattles ANC
Zimbabwe and Israel have had full diplomatic relations since 1993, but further overtures by our northern neighbour to the Jewish state could cause conflict with South Africa, particularly certain factions in the African National Congress (ANC).
According to an article by Carien du Plessis published on News24 on Wednesday, 3 February, “Zimbabwe has been seeking closer ties with Israel in the hope of securing more investment and doing away with sanctions. This move has caused unease within the ANC, which has a pro-Palestinian stance, although it’s unlikely the party will act on it.
“The ruling party [in Zimbabwe], ZANU-PF, has historically positioned itself as pro-Palestinian, but Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s latest move closer to Israel represents a change in policy direction,” Du Plessis writes.
She reports that although the head of the ANC committee on international relations, Lindiwe Zulu, said that, “We cannot interfere with the sovereign decisions of the governing party of any other government”, there have been divisions within ZANU-PF and within the ANC about the Israel matter.
“A pro-Palestine lobby within the ANC wants South Africa’s governing party to take a more hardline approach to its Zimbabwean counterpart, while the pragmatists prefer not to push this issue for diplomatic reasons,” Du Plessis says.
Darren Bergman, the shadow minister for international relations and cooperation and a member of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Parliamentary Forum Human Rights Committee, didn’t mince his words about South Africa’s response.
“The people of Zimbabwe are suffering. The internal affairs of Zimbabwe couldn’t get South Africa to act, the situation in Zimbabwe couldn’t get South Africa to act, but the relationship with Israel gets South Africa to act,” he said.
“This is a sinister situation that must make the SADC and African Union [AU] question what exactly South Africa’s situation is with regard to the Middle East,” Bergman said.
“It’s one thing to have an opinion and a position, but it’s another to keep a hard-pressed, almost spiteful stance at all times that can actually harm and injure the people and the continent. To this I would say that South Africa should show diplomatic constraint, and hold back.”
One of Mnangagwa’s recent moves to improve relations with Israel is the appointment last year of Israeli national Ronny Levi Musan as honorary consul of Zimbabwe to Israel.
The Afro-Middle East Centre reported in October 2020 that, “Musan has set plans into motion for Mnangagwa’s official visit to Israel. His activities in Zimbabwe include collaboration with Pentecostal churches to push for Christian support for Israel. Zimbabwe’s honorary consul is also pushing for Israeli businesses to invest in Zimbabwe’s agricultural sector, and he recently announced the intention to open an Israeli academy of agriculture in Zimbabwe. On the diplomatic front, Israel hopes that Mnangagwa will follow the example of his Malawian counterpart, Lazarus Chakwera, who announced plans to open an embassy in Jerusalem.”
Musan told the SA Jewish Report he had worked in Africa for the past 20 years to strengthen links between churches and the Holy Land. “About five years ago, I was invited to visit Zimbabwe which lasted about two weeks. I tried to do everything possible to connect Zimbabwe to Israel on a practical level. After the first visit, I visited Zimbabwe several more times, and met a number of ministers and church leaders, and just fell in love with the place.
“From there, it continued through my activities with the Israeli foreign ministry and the foreign ministry in Zimbabwe to promote diplomatic relations between the countries.” He was eventually appointed to this role.
“My main responsibility is to do everything possible in every field to bring knowledge and support from Israel to Zimbabwe, and vice versa. The main issue is technology in the field of agriculture, education, and innovation. These are the cornerstones that will return the crown to Zimbabwe as the ‘grain basket of Africa’.”
Local political analyst Daniel Silke says that Zimbabwe’s overtures to Israel “could well be an attempt by Zimbabwe to follow the Sudan example, in which currying favour with the United States via the channel of restoring relations with Israel allows the country to receive assistance and perhaps even escape some of the worst sanctions. But, of course, [former US] President Donald Trump is no longer in the White House. Whether this will have any traction with Joe Biden, who I think will be a lot more critical of the Zimbabwean regime, remains to be seen.”
In terms of the impact it could have on South African-Israel relations, Silke says, “Many other African countries are forging their own path in terms of relations with Israel. For President [Cyril] Ramaphosa, it’s a difficult balancing act given the demands from within his own party. But I don’t think South Africa has any leg to stand on in terms of interference with any country which wishes to forge some sort of close relationship with the Jewish state. As head of the AU, Ramaphosa is again in a tough position because of the changing dynamics across Africa, but I don’t think it’s an issue that will really get much attention.”
Rowan Polovin, the chairperson of the South African Zionist Federation, says, “We see this as a positive development, particularly for Southern Africa, which is part of the momentum that is being created by the Abraham Accords.
“Northern Africa has been very much part of the momentum. In the southern region, Malawi, which is diplomatically and geographically close to South Africa, has signalled its intention to open an embassy in Israel. If all this has an impact on South Africa’s neighbours, then South Africa will see the benefits. It’s very hard to ignore the importance of building ties with Israel, which has so many solutions for African issues, particularly water, electricity, agriculture, and security. Notwithstanding the noise that the ANC might make, ultimately it’s positive.”
Just how successful is Israel’s vaccine push?
Israel is reporting promising initial results from its COVID-19 vaccine rollout, the fastest in the world.
The first official findings released by the health ministry show that only 0.04% of people caught the virus a week after their second dose, and a mere 0.002% needed hospital treatment.
Clalit, the country’s largest health service organisation, has also released its preliminary data. It compared 200 000 people aged 60 and over who’ve been vaccinated with 200 000 similar unvaccinated older adults. It found that the rate of those who tested positive dropped 33% among the vaccinated 14 days after they received it. No decline was seen in the unvaccinated.
Maccabi, another healthcare organisation, saw an even larger drop. Infections decreased 60% among 430 000 people 13 to 21 days after they received the vaccine. The data also suggested the vaccine was 92% effective, close to the 95% efficacy claimed by Pfizer.
Israeli researchers are conducting more in-depth analysis, and point out that real-world effectiveness of vaccines is often lower than the efficacy seen in clinical trials due to a number of factors.
But experts warn that this data has yet to be published in a peer-reviewed journal so it should be viewed with some caution.
There are also various factors that could be influencing the results. The current lockdown and behaviour such as travelling and gathering less, wearing masks, and greater physical distancing might be decreasing infections.
The first people to receive the vaccine were mostly from vulnerable populations, so they are more likely to take precautions which could also skew the data.
In spite of the encouraging news, the death toll from COVID-19 continues to climb. Of the 4 816 fatalities at the time of writing, 30% occurred in January when the vaccination rollout was already in full swing. The government blames this on the more transmissible British variant of the virus, especially among children. According to Clalit, when the vaccination campaign started in late December, the new variant caused 30% to 40% of infections, whereas now that figure has doubled.
As for the South African strain, there are currently 80 detected cases in Israel, and there is concern that the vaccine isn’t as effective against this variant. A number of Israelis who previously had COVID-19 have been re-infected with the South African strain, with the most recent case identified two days ago.
Compounding the situation is the flagrant disregard by the ultra-Orthodox community, that comprises just less than 13% of the population, for lockdown rules. Since the start of the pandemic, one in five ultra-Orthodox has tested positive.
Many in the community doubt the safety of the vaccine or believe the country’s citizens are being used as guinea pigs to test its efficacy. Prominent rabbis have also said that communal prayer and study needs to overwrite lockdown concerns.
Last Sunday, 31 January, thousands of ultra-Orthodox mourners, many without masks, crowded together to attend two funerals of famous rabbis who died from coronavirus. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been criticised for not cracking down harshly enough on the community for political reasons – he needs their votes in the upcoming 23 March election.
Residents of Tel Aviv spoke to the SA Jewish Report, complaining that the actions of the ultra-Orthodox were forcing the whole country to go repeatedly into lockdown, and it wasn’t fair. It’s no surprise thus that the latest word from the government is that the current – third – nationwide lockdown may not be Israel’s last.
Many Israelis want cities and towns to once again be divided into red, orange, yellow, and green zones and scales of restrictions to be put in place accordingly. This would mean those who obey the restrictions wouldn’t have to pay the price of those who don’t.
In recent days, there’s also growing concern in some quarters in Israel that because the mass vaccination campaign is running in parallel with an active coronavirus outbreak, it could lead to an “evolutionary pressure” on the virus in which it would ultimately become immune to vaccination. Doctors are suggesting that in future, people will need to take an annual anti-COVID-19 jab, much in the same way the annual flu injection is taken.
But for now, the race to innoculate everyone is on. Among the first to be injected were people aged 60 or older. More than two-thirds of this age group have already received the required two doses. Up to 200 000 people are being injected each day, and the vaccine is now available to anyone over the age of 35. High-school students aged 16 to 18 are also included in the hope that they will be able to sit for exams. It seems Netanyahu is on track to fulfil his promise of innoculating five million of the country’s nine million citizens by the end of March.
To date, just more than one in three Israelis has been inoculated – about 1.7 million of them twice. Because this is a far higher fraction than anywhere else in the world, it makes the country a test case for the international vaccine push.
The right to demonstrate, even during lockdown
Israelis are being allowed out of their homes in full lockdown to call for the resignation of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Bibi), who is viewed by many on both sides of the political spectrum as corrupt.
This freedom in a lockdown which ordinarily limits you to being no more than one kilometre from your house is based on the country’s constitutional right to protest. On bridges, at junctions, and outside Bibi’s house in Jerusalem, daily protests occur, resuming after Shabbat goes out on Saturday night.
“Lech! Lech!” (Go!) is shouted loudly – which is also the name for the movement against Netanyahu.
There are some staunch Likud followers who scream, “Arafat and Rabin sold out the country,” prompting laughter amongst some demonstrators, who point out that their arguments are old and outdated. Demonstrators including doctors, lawyers, pilots, accountants, and students point out that this isn’t about the Israel-Palestine issue, it’s not about being leftist or rightist, but about ethics and bringing to justice an allegedly corrupt prime minister.
The protestors are passionate, some defying orders not to camp outside Bibi’s residence. At 21:30, police order the drums, trumpets, and whistles to cease. The protestors obey, but continue to demonstrate quietly, so as not to disturb the Jerusalem neighbourhood.
Then, at about 23:00, carrying Israeli flags in blue and white and others in red and white, the protestors pack up and go home to lockdown.
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