
World

What Trump 2.0 holds for SA and Israel
On 20 January, Donald Trump will be inaugurated for his second term as United States (US) president. The world had one dose of this mercurial, capricious, thin-skinned maverick from 2017 to 2020, and should expect the unexpected.
Relations between Washington and Pretoria are prickly and volatile. South Africa benefits hugely from market access under the US’s Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), especially in the automotive, citrus, and wine sectors. Trump – now with a Republican-majority Congress – is likely to demand more concessions from African countries when AGOA comes up for renewal in late 2025 – if it’s extended at all. Trump asserts that the US gets the raw end of the deal. He’s bombastically threatened to impose tariffs on allies and enemies alike.
Sara Gon from the Institute of Race Relations said, “Trump is unlikely to be as accommodating of South Africa’s ‘non-aligned’ foreign policy. I’m not sure that Trump will be convinced by South Africa’s inherent geostrategic importance, even given the shipping crisis in the Middle East. Our ports are a mess anyway. Under Trump, therefore, AGOA may not be safe for South Africa.”
Africa was neglected in Trump’s first term. Infamously, he called African states “shithole countries”, and mispronounced “Namibia” as “Nambia”. He tweeted garbled, controversial ideas about farm murders in South Africa. He didn’t visit the continent.
“Africa is hardly a priority for Trump, based on past statements,” said Dr Martha Bridgman, who has tracked US foreign policy since the 1980s. “But if the trade war with China ratchets up as expected, and the US looks around for diversified sources of resources such as critical minerals for manufacture of electric vehicle components, the US may well resume its courting of African states for favourable trade terms. South Africa as a leader on the continent will be important to cultivate diplomatically, so we may see a new ambassadorial appointment more quickly this time around.”
Another thing that’s different this time is that South Africa chairs the G20 (Group of 20 most important economies) in 2025. Trump is expected to attend the G20 summit in South Africa, and both countries need to ensure a smooth handover to the US in 2026.
Bilateral ties have seldom been warm recently. The African National Congress has persistently railed against what is considers an imperialist, arrogant, hegemonic US. This view has been amplified since South Africa joined BRICS in 2011, a bloc composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, and now including Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
With China, and to a lesser extent Russia and Iran, considered rivals to the US’s dominance, Pretoria’s closeness to these states and Hamas has irked Washington. On top of ill-timed joint naval exercises; refusing to condemn Moscow; and the Lady R embarrassment; the proposal to rename Sandton Drive, the location of the US’s Johannesburg consulate, after Palestinian hijacker Leila Khaled has also annoyed the US. A Republican Congress will probably push to punish South Africa for its closeness to “malign actors”.
South Africa hauling Israel to the International Court of Justice on “genocide” charges is one of the biggest obstacles in the US-South Africa relationship. South Africa has also supported the arrest warrants for Israeli leaders from the International Criminal Court (ICC) and has granted immunity from prosecution to ICC staff members, to the chagrin of Washington.
In his first term, Trump was extremely supportive of the Benjamin Netanyahu government. Trump finally moved the US embassy to Jerusalem; recognised Israeli sovereignty over East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights; unveiled his pro-Israel “deal of the century” peace plan; kept the pressure on Iran; and brokered the 2020 Abraham Accords, normalising relations with Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and the UAE.
Said Gon, “I believe Trump will give Israel the space to do what Israel deems necessary to finish the wars against Iran and its proxies.”
But it’s not so simple. Trump was furious when Netanyahu hastily congratulated Joe Biden on his 2020 electoral victory, accusing Netanyahu of the greatest Trumpian sin: disloyalty. Last week, Trump – ever vindictive – reposted a video of Professor Jeffrey Sachs calling Netanyahu “a deep, dark, son-of-a-bitch” who had dragged the US into conflicts in the Middle East.
Said Bridgman, “While the campaign promises to end the war in the Middle East immediately are unlikely to be fulfilled – there are still the hostages to rescue, after all – Trump 2.0 will most likely be able to capitalise on the changed power equation in the Middle East – the diminished power base of Iran and the now defanged Hamas – to bring about a ceasefire of some nature. Whether this will lead to longer peace is much less clear.”
Brooks Spector, a retired US diplomat and writer, said, “With the sudden collapse of the al-Assad regime [in Syria]; the near-destruction of Hamas, but at the cost of the horrific devastation of Gaza and its population and a tide of international opprobrium directed against Israel; the decimation of Hezbollah and its capabilities in southern Lebanon; and the apparent inability of Iran and Russia to forestall any of this, Donald Trump enters office when there’s a window of opportunity for the reshaping of the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.
“But at the same time,” Spector said, “The ongoing war in Ukraine, despite candidate Trump’s promises, will continue, and it will test Trump’s ability to reach a deal with Vladimir Putin that doesn’t traduce the resolve of the NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization] alliance. Ultimately, Donald Trump will need to learn yet again that bluster and catch phrases are insufficient to make a coherent foreign policy.
Trump has threated that “all hell will break loose” if the remaining hostages in Gaza aren’t released by inauguration day. What that will look like is anyone’s guess. That’s if he’s not buying Greenland, annexing Canada, and invading the Panama Canal.
- Steven Gruzd is a political analyst in Johannesburg. He writes in his personal capacity.
