Israelis wait for a coalition or second election, maybe war

I don’t envy President Isaac Herzog. This week, the president will sit down for consultations with each faction that will represent the Israeli electorate in the Knesset and receive their recommendations of who they believe is best suited to form a government. Will it be Benjamin Netanyahu, the incumbent prime minister, or Gadi Eisenkot, who heads the change bloc? In the interests of full transparency, the president will broadcast these meetings via his office’s YouTube channel. We can all be a fly on the wall. 

Currently, it seems that Eisenkot will be the candidate most likely tapped by the president with the unenviable role of forming a coalition. 

The big question Israelis are asking is will we have a functioning government or could we be headed to the polls again? 

One thing of which Israelis can be certain is that there is no absolute certainty. While the horse-trading and political musical chairs are underway, other issues loom – a possible renewed war with Iran and a win for the Democratic Party in the US midterms, which could challenge Israel and the US’s iron-clad alliance. 

Israel’s election results and the aftermath have come with significant surprises. While Likud may have won the most seats, the “Pro-Netanyahu” bloc fell short of the majority. In a shock development, the ultra-Orthodox party United Torah Judaism (UTJ), which won seven seats, said that it is unlikely to recommend Netanyahu to form a coalition, leaving Bibi with Shas and the far-right Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionist Party, headed by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich respectively. 

The ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) parties underperformed, but the Arab parties, comprised of The Joint List and Ra’am, won 19 seats, making them the third biggest bloc. It is important to note that Arab voters aren’t homogenous and while some (not all) of the parties are politically and ideologically opposed to the other factions, many in the Arab communities don’t vote for them. Israel’s Arabs see high crime as one of their most pressing concerns – and don’t want a repeat performance from Ben-Gvir. 

The “anti-Bibi” or “change bloc”, headed by Eisenkot, also fell short of the majority, accumulating 48 seats, but is likely to be offered to form a coalition first. 

There is the possibility that the Arab bloc and UTJ sit outside of the coalition. The change bloc realises it has to move very fast. This week, leaders of the various factions met and released the following statement, “We are coordinated and will act immediately to replace the 7 October government with a national emergency government, and realise the clear parliamentary majority in the Knesset. The party leaders are coordinating regarding the need to establish a Zionist government based on the four principles set forth by Eisenkot, as soon as possible.” 

Nobody wants to go to another election. 

Can there be compromise? Could there be a unity or broad-based government? Highly unlikely because much like a family wedding where people refuse to sit with each other, there are those who refuse to sit with Netanyahu. Avigdor Liberman, the Arab bloc, Eisenkot, Yair Golan, and possibly UTJ have said they will not sit with Bibi. 

Israelis are feeling the shifting sands and the uncertainty. We need change. We are war-fatigued and very wary about the future – and Israel’s global reputation, which has been decidedly mismanaged. At the time of writing, conversation has become less about the election results and more about the possibility of renewed war with Iran. Will it be today? This weekend? The war drums beat louder and the rhetoric on all sides becomes more strident. We are also watching the US midterms very closely. A projected Democratic win could have very serious consequences for our “unshakeable alliance”, with members of that party increasingly hostile towards the Jewish State. 

In the meantime, while the war drums bang, the negotiations continue and we brace for a seismic change in the US, singer Boy George is in Israel to perform. Israelis will do what we do in times of uncertainty and change. We will dance again. 

• Rolene Marks is a Middle East commentator often heard on radio and TV and is the co-founder of Lay of the Land and the SA-Israel Policy Forum.