Iran conflict updated factsheet

The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran – Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion – is now in its 14th day, having begun on 28 February with the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. 

Israel launched a new “extensive wave” of strikes on Tehran overnight, while Iran has widened its retaliatory campaign to include commercial shipping in Iraqi waters and drone attacks across Gulf states. New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first statement, vowing to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and threatening US bases unless they shut down. 

Key statistics and data 

Targets struck (cumulative) in Iran since 28 February 

• Iranian naval vessels destroyed/damaged: 90+, including 30+ minelayers (US Central Command, Centcom, via C-Span/NPR) 

• Iranian drones/missiles fired: 500+ ballistic/naval missiles and about 12 000 drones (NBC News) 

• Israeli intercepts: Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reports 250+ Iranian drones destroyed, plus dozens of launchers (Times of Israel) 

• Casualties — US: Seven killed, About 40 wounded (Time Magazine, NBC News) 

• Casualties — Israel: 15 killed (two IDF soldiers, 13 civilians), 2 557+ injured (Jerusalem Post) 

• Casualties — Gulf states: 17 killed across United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar (CNN) 

• US aircraft lost: Fourth loss confirmed – a KC-135 tanker crashed in western Iraq (not hostile fire per Centcom); a second KC-135 was damaged but landed safely in Israel (Centcom, NPR) 

• Cost to US military (first week): $11.3 billion (R190 billion), according to Pentagon briefing to lawmakers, NBC News 

• Developments since last update (about eight hours) 

• New IDF wave on Tehran: The Israeli Air Force announced an “extensive wave” of overnight strikes across Tehran and issued forced evacuation orders for parts of Beirut (Times of Israel) 

• French casualty: French President Emmanuel Macron confirmed one French soldier was killed and six wounded in a drone strike on a base at Mala Qara, Iraqi Kurdistan (Euronews, NPR) 

• Maritime escalation deepens: Two oil tankers, the Maltese-flagged Zefyros and Marshallese-flagged Safesea Vishnu, were set ablaze in Iraqi waters, marking the first Iranian maritime attack in Iraqi territorial waters; one Indian national killed. Oman’s navy rescued 20 sailors from a Thai-flagged vessel attacked near the Strait (CNN, CNBC) 

• Iraq shuts oil ports: Following the tanker attacks, Iraq closed its last functioning northern Persian Gulf oil export corridor (CNBC) 

• Iran expands Gulf attacks: Drone and missile strikes hit targets in Saudi Arabia (near Shaybah oilfield, intercepted), Abu Dhabi’s Zayed port (struck), Kuwait (drone hit residential building, two wounded; six electricity transmission lines disrupted by debris), and Bahrain (CNN, Euronews) 

• Saudi intercepts: Saudi Ministry of Defense intercepted and destroyed two drones heading toward the Shaybah oilfield (CNN) 

• Khamenei Junior statement: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, in his first communiqué since succeeding his assassinated father, vowed the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed and demanded closure of US regional bases (NPR, Euronews) 

• KC-135 crash: Centcom confirmed a US Air Force KC-135 refuelling tanker crashed in western Iraq; a second involved aircraft landed safely in Israel. “This was not due to hostile fire or friendly fire.” (Centcom via CNN) 

Official statements 

• Centcom (Admiral Brad Cooper): “US forces continue delivering devastating combat power against the Iranian regime.” Noted Iran’s practice of launching attacks from populated areas. (C-SPAN CENTCOM briefing) 

• IDF / Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz: The operation “will continue without any time limit, as long as required, until we achieve all objectives.” (Jerusalem Post) 

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: Israel is “crushing” the Iranian regime and Hezbollah, in his first press conference since operations began. (Jerusalem Post) 

• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian: Outlined three conditions for ending the war – recognition of Tehran’s “legitimate rights”, payment of reparations, and firm international guarantees. (NPR) 

• Khamenei (via Iranian state media, reported by Western outlets): Vowed Strait of Hormuz will remain closed and threatened continued attacks on US regional bases. 

• Macron: Confirmed French military casualty in Kurdistan; French forces had United Kingdom authorisation for “specific and limited defensive” use of Diego Garcia and Royal Air Force Fairford. (Euronews) 

• US President Donald Trump: Said the war is going well and could end “pretty quickly”, but expressed dissatisfaction with Iran’s new supreme leader. (NPR, CNN) 

Commentary and analysis 

• NPR’s reporting suggests Iran’s three-condition peace offer is being read by analysts as a face-saving formula rather than a genuine off-ramp, given the hardline tone from Mojtaba Khamenei. 

• CNBC’s energy reporters note markets “shrugged off” the IEA’s 400 million barrel emergency reserve release, signalling deep trader scepticism about bridging the Hormuz supply gap. 

• NBC News highlights that the $11.3 billion (R190 billion) first-week cost figure is already drawing congressional pushback, with Senator Chris Murphy warning of an “endless war” with “incoherent” planning. 

• The House of Commons Library briefing (UK Parliament) notes allied governments are treading carefully on formal co-belligerent status while providing basing rights – a legally significant distinction. 

Markets and energy 

• Brent crude: Closed at $100.46/barrel on 12 March – first close above $100 since August 2022 – CNBC 

• WTI: ~$95.73/barrel (CNBC) 

• Context: Prices are about 17% higher than pre-war levels. The Strait of Hormuz closure is blocking around 15 million barrels per day of crude and five million barrels per day of refined products (CNBC, CNN Business) 

• IEA: Announced release of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, the largest in history, but markets showed little relief (CNBC) 

• US equities: Stocks fell on 12 March as oils return above $100 revived recession and inflation concerns (BNN Bloomberg) 

What to watch (next eight hours) 

1. IDF battle damage assessment for overnight Tehran wave – likely to be announced via IDF spokesperson (idf.il); scale and specific targets will indicate whether strategic priorities have shifted toward leadership or nuclear sites. 

1. Strait of Hormuz navigability – Centcom has been clearing mines; watch for any US Navy escort operations or further Iranian mining/interdiction of commercial vessels in Iraqi or Gulf waters. 

1. French escalation calculus – Macron’s confirmation of a French KIA in Kurdistan raises the question of whether France will formally expand its role; watch for Élysée and NATO statements. 

Most recent confirmed source timestamp: Centcom KC-135 statement, 13 March 2026. Brent crude close: 12 March 2026 (CNBC).