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Israel

In Hamas’s Islamic warfare, Israel playing long game

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The Hamas “hostage for terrorist ceasefire” deal brokered by Qatar and the United States has triggered debate in Israel and among its allies and adversaries alike. Israel’s commitment to return its 94 remaining hostages, particularly women and children, comes at a high price.

Global fanfare headlined by CNN’s “Everyone Crying” lead story and Israel’s emotional eruption over Hamas’s grotesquely executed return of hostages Romi Gonen 24; Doron Steinbrecher 31; and Israeli Brit Emily Damari 28, after 471 days in captivity, handing them off to the Red Cross with gift bags from the “Hamas government”, vindicates the terror group’s global propaganda campaign. Add to that Hamas’s 33 kidnap victims in the deal’s return with a mere three hostages per week over a gruelling six week first stage, and the psychological torture of reuniting three hostages per week with their families, adds to Hamas’s negotiating advantage and psychological leverage. Simultaneously, Jerusalem’s release of hundreds of Palestinian terrorists appears to add to Hamas’s psychological war and accrue to its projection of victory over the “Zionist enemy”.

That’s why this terror-for-hostages exchange isn’t a ceasefire and prisoner exchange in the Western sense of the terms. Rather, this is Islamic warfare, which must help frame the debate in Israel over the price of the current exchange as part of the larger war and Israel’s strategy, tactics, and political will to defeat its unrelenting, savage enemy.

After five terror wars Hamas has prosecuted since 2009, the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood sees this moment as a hudna (a temporary cessation of hostilities), part of Islamic warfare’s notion of a temporary cessation of war until it replenishes its terror troops, resupplies its depots, and relaunches its assaults on Israel. This time, Israel appears to see it that way too. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s assertion on 18 January that Israel’s military forces would remain in Gaza, deepen its presence on the strategically vital Philadelphi Corridor, and return to fight to vanquish Hamas reflect a welcome political and moral will to destroy Hamas on the way to eviscerate its terror masters in Tehran. The government’s latest reaffirmations of Netanyahu’s commitment to victory fly in the face of many in Israel who have decried the deal as undermining Israel’s three stated goals of the war: removing the terrorist threat from Gaza; defeating Hamas as a political and terror military dominant power; and returning the hostages.

After 15 months of war, these goals have yet to be achieved. However, in Islamic warfare, holy war or “jihad” is a form of what the Chinese and the Russians have called “hybrid warfare”, combining deception and terror in a long struggle to cause hopelessness and societal implosion among the enemy’s population. That hasn’t succeeded against Israel. In addition, it underscores the importance of Israel’s employing patience and resilience, and defies the shorter timeline for victory that Israel has used to judge its former military successes and regain its deterrence.

That’s also the context in which to judge the current deal-driven lull in the fighting against the Iran backed Hamas and Hezbollah jihad. Professor Joel Hayward’s Islamic Principles of War for the Twenty First Century (2020) and Dr Harold Rhode’s Modern Islamic Warfare (2017) remind Western readers of the context for understanding Hamas’s war against Israel and the West. They also serve as reference guides for Israel when fighting for its hostages in service of its larger goal to destroy the Hamas death cult and defeat its terror masters in Iran.

Hayward notes that “Mohammed’s oft repeated statement that war is deceit” is key to understanding Islamic warfare. He notes that, “combat is best understood as primarily a battle of wits rather than of wills that should be undertaken as creatively, cunningly, and misleadingly as possible as to keep opponents in a constant state of confusion”.

Netanyahu understands that this terrorist-for-hostage exchange may well not reach the second stage. Hamas’s record speaks for itself. That’s why Israel has remained in the Philadelphi Corridor; established an iron ring of security around the Gaza Strip; and maintains its buffer zone inside Gaza. This is an improved arrangement that Israel could have made in the May 2024 prospective ceasefire, as proposed by the Biden administration.

Netanyahu’s recent statement indicates that he understands that Israel is fighting against jihad’s long war. He noted on 20 January 2025 that, “If the negotiations collapse, we will continue the war in new ways, with extreme force, and with the full support of the United States. Hamas is alone in this war, and throughout the ‘deal’, we will continue to cut off Gaza from every side and when the deal ends, we will continue the war.”

Netanyahu’s determination to fight Hamas has found sympathy and support in the incoming Trump administration. Presumptive Secretary of State Mark Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Intelligence Director Mike Waltz, called for destroying Hamas in their respective confirmation hearings. The statements are unprecedented in any US administration. It signals that America has Israel’s back in the current war that is far from resolution.

As expected, Hamas’s deception warfare continues unabatedly, now targeting Trump himself. On 19 January 2025, Hamas leader Mousa Abu Marzook, who had been incarcerated in the US in 1996, convicted of massive terror financing for Hamas, credited Trump for the Gaza ceasefire saying, “We are prepared for a dialogue with America and achieving understandings on everything.” Hamas’s push for legitimacy challenges Israel to expose Hamas’s strategy and tactics. The jihadi group doesn’t intend to cease its war with Israel. As Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs scholar Khaled Abu Toameh pointed out in a 19 January analysis for the Gatestone Institute, Hamas leader Khalil al Hayya clarified on 15 January that “Hamas will continue its war on Israel”.

The thousands of Gazans who took to the streets during the 20 January Hamas hostage hand-off chanting, “We will go to Jerusalem, we will sacrifice millions of martyrs” buttressed Al Hayya’s statements. Lest there remains doubt about Hamas intentions, its Izza din Al Qassam Brigade joined the victory celebrations over the hudna terror-for-hostage exchange, declaring, “We are on the battlefield and we will remain on the battlefield.”

If nothing else, Hamas has vindicated Netanyahu’s commitment to win the long war.

  • Dr Dan Diker is president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.
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