Elections, upheaval, heartbreak, hustling – our picks for 2026

I’ve thrown the bones, read the tea leaves, and gazed into my crystal ball to see what we can expect in 2026. Here are my predictions, and some important anniversaries in the next year. 

South Africa is due to hold local government elections between 2 November 2026 and 1 February 2027, for all eight metropolitan municipalities and 205 local municipalities. I see the African National Congress further declining from its poor showing in the 2024 polls, despite its attempts to reform. There will be many hung councils, with no clear majority party. 

The big question is whether the Democratic Alliance (DA) will grow or shrink after its decision to form a coalition government, hinging on its ability to attract black voters. John Steenhuisen may face a leadership challenge. I expect most other parties to show decline, particularly the Economic Freedom Fighters and Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe party. All eyes will be on Johannesburg, where veteran DA leader Helen Zille, 75 next year, has already begun vigorously campaigning for the mayoral chain. 

She’s popped up on social media directing cars amid broken traffic lights, pointing out enormous potholes, and criss-crossing the city listening to residents’ issues. If she doesn’t win, she will come close. If elected, “the madam” will surely stir things up in Africa’s most important city. 

South Africa will reflect on 50 years since the 1976 Soweto Uprising, sure to be marked with large commemorations. 

There are also elections scheduled in Algeria, Benin, Ethiopia, and Uganda, among others. Put your money on the incumbents. Expect the opposition to cry foul. 

Off the back of a successful G20, Pretoria has been shut out of the 2026 version in the United States from the very first meeting due to decaying bilateral relations. This is despite the troika tradition where past, present, and future G20 presidents – the United Kingdom will host in 2027 – collaborate. 

The consensus is that US President Donald Trump cannot just uninvite South Africa. Nevertheless, he has done so, and other states look unlikely to spend their political capital by boycotting the G20. 

The Department of International Relations has clearly communicated that South Africa will sit this one out, essentially taking an enforced gap year in 2026. Trump wants to replace South Africa with Poland, a move that Russia could potentially block. The G20 is set to be held at Trump’s own property in Doral, outside Miami, a shameless money-making gambit. 

In Israel, it’s hoped that the brittle ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza will continue to hold and progress to a more permanent and peaceful resolution. Despite long-standing corruption and fraud charges against him, Israel’s Teflon Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who will be 77, is set to contest elections which have to be held by 27 October 2026. It seems likely the electorate will punish him for the 7 October 2023 attacks and subsequent two-year war in the Middle East. 

Next year will be the 50th Eurovision Song Contest, held in Vienna. The organisation resisted calls to eject Israel, leading to a threatened boycott by Ireland, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and Spain, so far. 

It’s the 50th anniversary of the 1976 Raid on Entebbe, when Netanyahu’s older brother, Yoni, was killed in the daring rescue of hijacked Israeli hostages in Uganda. I expect a high-profile commemoration. 

The US is also entering an election year, with all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and one-third of Senate seats up for grabs in mid-term elections. If this November’s polls are anything to go by, the Democrats may make significant gains in a very polarised election climate. The country will celebrate its 250th birthday on 4 July, having declared independence from Britain in 1776. 

The Ukraine war is likely to end, but Kyiv will be against surrendering territory to Moscow. 

2026 will provide many sporting spectacles. The FIFA World Cup, with a mind-boggling 48 teams, will be co-hosted in Canada, Mexico, and the US. Bafana Bafana have qualified for the first time since 2002, having gotten a free pass when we hosted in 2010. They have a tough group with Mexico, South Korea, and a team not yet determined. There are eight other African teams qualified so far: Algeria, Cape Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Morocco, Senegal, and Tunisia. I’m hoping for a Bafana Bafana or Brazilian victory. 

“Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry” tour by New Zealand of South Africa is also scheduled, with four mouthwatering tests and matches against the provincial franchises. Springbok coach Dr Rassie Erasmus will be planning the bid for an unprecedented World Cup “threepeat” in Australia in 2027, after an extremely successful 2025. 

Milano and Cortina d’Ampezzo in Italy will host the Winter Olympics from 6 to 22 February, and the Commonwealth Games will take place in Glasgow, Scotland from 23 July to 3 August. 

On the cricket pitch, the ICC Champions Trophy will be hosted in Pakistan from February to March, while the 20-team ICC T20 World Cup will be held in October-November, in India and Sri Lanka. Prepare for heartbreak, Proteas fans. 

2026 is the centenary of the publication of AA Milne’s beloved classic, Winnie the Pooh. It will mark the 100th birthday of naturalist David Attenborough, and 100 years since the birth of Marilyn Monroe, Queen Elizabeth the second, and Fidel Castro. It is 50 years since the formation of computer mega-giant Apple, and 25 years since the launch of Wikipedia, the iPod, and Xbox. It’s also 25 years since the 2001 World Conference Against Racism, at which ugly antisemitism spilled onto the streets of Durban. It’s 25 years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, and the start of the US war in Afghanistan. It’s a decade since the Brexit referendum, and 10 years since the world lost superstars David Bowie, Prince, George Michael, and Leonard Cohen. Believe it or not, it’s five years since the COVID-19 pandemic changed our world forever. 

Happy New Year, everybody. Hopefully it will be 2020-fix. 

• Steven Gruzd is a political analyst in Johannesburg. He writes in his personal capacity.