JORDAN MOSHE
Israeli, American, and Chinese scientists among others are pushing to find an answer. Some results are looking promising, and local experts are “cautiously optimistic”.
How realistic is a cure at this point, and just how long would it take to develop, test, and distribute a vaccination?
This Saturday marks two months since the novel corona virus known as Covid-19 was identified. Having spread beyond the epicentre in the Hubei province of China, the disease accounts for more than 94 000 cases worldwide, with deaths being reported lately in Italy, Iran, and the United States. Iraq, Poland, Morocco, Andorra, Armenia, Argentina, and Scotland have all recently confirmed their first cases of the virus.
Around the world, companies and research teams are reportedly working on vaccines and anti-viral drugs to treat Covid-19. They aim either to stop further infection or treat those who have already contracted the virus.
Israel is playing a central role. According to the media network Arutz Sheva, Israeli scientists are on the verge of developing the first vaccine for the virus. Reports indicate that if all goes well, it could be ready within a few weeks and available in 90 days.
The minds behind this are from the Migal Research Institute in the Galilee region, who say they expect to start producing a vaccine in the next eight to 10 weeks.
“Given the urgent global need for a human coronavirus vaccine, we are doing everything we can to accelerate development,” the institute’s chief executive, David Zigdon, said. “This will be an oral vaccine, making it particularly accessible to the general public. We are holding intensive discussions with potential partners who can help accelerate the in-human trial phase and expedite the completion of final product development and regulatory activities.”
The Israeli researchers discovered a potential Covid-19 vaccine candidate as a by-product of their infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) vaccine developed over four years. They made genetic alterations to adapt the vaccine to the human strain of the novel coronavirus. The new vaccine was reportedly found to be effective in pre-clinical trials at the Israeli Volcani Institute.
Israel’s Minister of Science and Technology, Ofir Akunis, congratulated the team and expressed confidence in further rapid progress. He has reportedly instructed the director general of the ministry of science and technology to expedite all approval processes to bring the vaccine to the market as quickly as possible.
South African experts have their reservations, however. Professor Cheryl Cohen, the head of the Centre for Respiratory Disease and Meningitis at the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), stresses the need to be realistic.
“These reports are exciting, useful, and certainly worth discussing,” she says. “Still, it’s important to note that even if a drug has been created, vaccines wouldn’t be ready in less than a year.”
Professor Barry Schoub, emeritus professor in virology at the University of the Witwatersrand and former director of the NICD, agrees. “Coming up with a prototype vaccine strain is only the very beginning, and the media reports are overly optimistic about an effective and safe vaccine being available in 90 days,” he says.
Cohen stresses the need to distinguish a treatment from a vaccine.
“The mainstay treatment for the respiratory issues the virus causes are primarily supportive,” she says. “These include oxygen, the use of ventilators and other such supportive measures to aid recovery. Most treatments for viral infections support your immune system, and can see a patient through to recovery if kept alive through the worst patches.”
In addition to supportive treatment, certain viral infections can be addressed with drugs which target the virus and stop it from replicating. They supplement supportive therapy, and help a patient get over the infection.
“People often talk about a cure for an acute illness, but most people can recover without a cure as such,” says Cohen. “A number of antiviral treatment drugs are on trial to test their effectiveness against Covid-19, some of them combining HIV drugs and others using drugs developed for use against Middle East Respiratory Syndrome and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
Because most people can recover without a drug, it’s essential to prove that such treatment really improves the eventual outcome. “When people can get better anyway, one has to work hard to prove the treatment necessary,” says Cohen. “Controlled trials, patient follow-up, and the involvement of a lot of people is essential to prove that a drug works.”
Where treatment is concerned, Cohen says that it could potentially be available soon, subject to human testing, efficacy tests, and global availability. “It won’t be a miracle cure that takes away the disease, but it will augment supportive treatment.”
A drug that can kill the virus still has some way to go. Cohen says that its safety must be proven, its side-effects considered, and method of administration ironed out as well. “It’s not that it won’t work, but that much more is required,” she says. “It’s critical to ensure that it’s safe, and will not adversely interact with other drugs.”
As for vaccines, the wait will be considerable. A vaccine isn’t used to treat a patient already diagnosed with the virus, but to prevent infection. This makes it far more useful than treatment as it could prevent a pandemic.
“It’s much more useful but far more ambitious,” says Cohen. “It carries a greater burden of proving safety than a treatment. It’s one thing to treat a person who’s already sick, but another to give a drug to a person who is completely healthy. It has to be extremely safe.”
Schoub agrees. “Evaluation, which includes efficacy, stability especially genetic stability and, of course safety, takes many months. It involves laboratory evaluations, tissue culture, and animal testing, and only then phase 1, 2, and 3 clinical trials.”
Cohen says that developments in Israel look promising, and though the research team at Migal are ahead of others, the process is long and difficult.
“The most ambitious timeline for this is probably 18 months because of the stages involved. It’s a long process, but it’s vital.”
