Jewish bickering prolongs Iron Swords War

It’s an obvious conclusion for any military strategist, particularly within the Israel Defense Forces. If a radical, violence-driven Islamic group possesses the means, it will relentlessly seek to eliminate its declared enemies. The invasion by Hamas from Gaza on 7 October 2023, starkly demonstrated that if given the opportunity, it would strike Israel again. The ongoing Iron Swords War aims primarily to disarm Israel’s adversaries, ensuring that no group can launch such attacks in the future.

This conflict has engaged Israel on multiple fronts, including battles against Hamas and others in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, supporting the Druze against the new radical Islamic regime in Syria, and confronting the Houthi in Yemen. This group also pose a threat to shipping routes in the Indian Ocean, with an impact on the global economy. The multitude of simultaneous conflicts across a vast geographical area has tested Israel’s capacity to achieve swift victories on any front.

Domestic politics, international pressure, and ongoing hostage negotiations in Gaza have hindered the pace of victory. The conflict seems to be dragging on, with regular cycles of escalation and de-escalation. However, this prolonged engagement may not be entirely detrimental. It allows for the possibility of finding a sustainable governance solution for Gaza while also showing Palestinians that resorting to violence against Israel is unproductive.

Despite the theoretical advantages and disadvantages of a brief conflict, there are tangible obstacles to achieving swift resolution. One significant issue is Israel’s dependence on reserve forces or increased conscription. Reserves can be activated for only a limited time, as prolonged mobilisation would disrupt the economy. Inflation has surged from less than 1% to 3.5% over the past year and a half, exacerbated by global conflicts like the one in Ukraine, which has driven up wheat prices. Additionally, recently demobilised conscripts are eager to resume their lives, pursue education, and start families, but frequent remobilisation for reserve duty complicates these plans.

Furthermore, a substantial portion of the ultra-Orthodox community refuses to serve in any capacity, placing an unfair burden on those who do. This growing divide between secular and religious populations poses a significant threat to the social cohesion of the Jewish state.

The complexities of domestic politics are hindering a swift and decisive victory, largely due to the influence of Israeli left-wing parties advocating for a Palestinian state, even with Hamas in control of Gaza, despite the associated risks. In contrast, right-wing factions are pushing for the establishment of settlements in Gaza to serve as buffer zones against future invasions. Adding to the situation is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s divided attention, as he balances his leadership duties with court appearances related to corruption charges.

This conflict of interests is also evident in the West Bank, where weak governance by the Palestinian Authority renders it incapable of playing a significant role in Gaza’s future. In the former, military operations continue against Hamas and Islamic State, alongside the management of numerous prisoners released in exchange for hostages. Both Israel and the Palestinians will undoubtedly need new leadership and potentially a reformed political system to navigate their way out of the current impasse!

While many nations can freely defend themselves and deter threats, Israel operates under unique constraints. It adopts an ultra-humanitarian approach, conducting precise strikes to minimise civilian casualties, which inadvertently allows adversaries to reposition their forces, prolonging the conflict. Additionally, Israel faces ongoing international pressure that limits its operational scope and timing, including from allies like former United States President Joe Biden, who withheld certain munitions. Furthermore, the need to counter false accusations in international courts in The Hague adds to the distractions and burdens Israel must manage.

Finally, the remaining hostages held by Hamas are a critical issue. After 18 months of negotiations, a resolution remains elusive. Hamas is insisting that Israel cease its military actions and withdraw from Gaza in exchange for the release of these hostages, essentially demanding Israel’s capitulation. This would allow Hamas to maintain its position, rearm, and potentially launch further attacks on Israel while taking more hostages in the future.

It would be a grave mistake for the Israel Defense Forces to concede to such terms. Hamas mustn’t be allowed to continue its operations; it needs to be disarmed for both defensive and deterrent reasons. Other factions must understand that if they emulate Hamas’s actions, they will face similar consequences – complete neutralisation.

In May, a new phase of the conflict in Gaza was initiated, focused on disarming Hamas and conducting extensive house-to-house searches for the hostages. This appears to be the only viable method to secure their return.

However, this alone won’t bring an end to the war. As long as entities that support, arm, finance, and encourage Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis persist, the threat will remain. Iran is at the forefront of this interference, coupled with the risk of it achieving military nuclear capabilities. Though US President Donald Trump believes a deal with Iran is possible, until there is a change in the regime in Tehran, the Iron Swords War will continue, as Hamas cannot be disarmed in Gaza until its Iranian backers are dealt with.

In Israel, it is evident to those who reflect on the situation that the nation’s future hinges on Jewish unity. Without setting aside differences related to conscription, economics, politics, the hostages, or even eating kitniyot during Pesach, the outlook is grim. Unity, essential for a victory against all adversaries, is lacking, reminiscent of the discord among the rabbis arguing while Jerusalem burned leading up to the destruction of the Second Temple.

• Glen Segell is a professor at the University of Cambridge.