There’s no deal without ending the war

Direct negotiation between the United States (US) and Hamas is a good thing. Direct negotiations are almost always better than negotiations through third parties that have their own interests and styles of negotiating.

Egypt and Qatar have done a good job – or as good as can be expected. They each have their own “special” relationships with Israel and Hamas. However, if there could be direct Israel-Hamas negotiations, as I have advocated for two decades, the negotiations would be faster and the agreements reached less convoluted. This would still work despite each side being dedicated to the destruction of the other.

If direct negotiation between the US and Hamas is about the US negotiating the release of hostages with US citizenship – one living, four dead – then this is a negative development. There must be negotiations for all 59 hostages, living and dead. The US has almost no leverage on Hamas, and US threats against Hamas are almost useless.

The US isn’t likely to bomb Gaza or put US boots on the ground. The main danger is that the US could give Israel the green light to renew the war with the express purpose of destroying the 20% of Gaza that hasn’t yet been destroyed and give it license to go after all of the remaining Hamas commanders and fighters.

The US could also green light Israeli breaches of international law such as cutting humanitarian supplies – food, water, medical supplies, tents, and so on. If this happens, if the war renews with US support, it essentially means that Netanyahu and his government have decided to sacrifice the remaining hostages and there’s the likely possibility that many of them will never return home.

On the other hand, if US-Hamas negotiations lead the Americans to understand that the hostages cannot be saved without moving to stage two of the agreement, then Trump could use his leverage on Netanyahu and tell him to finish the deal and deal with Hamas afterwards. This is the best possible outcome.

There’s no deal without ending the war and without Israel exiting Gaza. There’s no end to the war without all of the hostages being freed. There’s no real end to the war if Hamas – militarily or politically – continues to control Gaza. There’s no reconstruction of Gaza if Hamas remains in control of Gaza. The war must end now!

Most of the details of the Arab League plan for Gaza haven’t been published. I understand that there is a 150-page document with the plan, which I haven’t seen yet but am trying to get hold of. The plan, as reported, would lead to the establishment of a technocratic, professional, civilian governing council in Gaza, which Hamas wouldn’t be part of.

According to what was published, the Palestinian Authority (PA) would take control of Gaza after six months. Palestinian security forces would be trained in Jordan and Egypt, and all of the Arab and other countries would participate in the reconstruction of Gaza, with a $54 billion (R985.6 billion) price tag.

There’s a lot we don’t know and that hasn’t been published – or I haven’t yet seen. Those issues include the question whether Mahmoud Abbas will step aside so that someone with more legitimacy could rule the PA until new elections can be held. The plan calls for comprehensive Palestinian elections for the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza, and for a presidency and legislative council for the state of Palestine.

There’s the question of who will be appointed – by Abbas presumably – to head the Gaza council? In the plan, or Palestinian announcement, there was a statement that ousted Fatah leaders would be granted amnesty and be allowed to return. Are they talking about Mohammed Dahlan or Nasser al-Qudwa? Dahlan has no intention of returning, and Al-Qudwa is willing to take on the duty of heading the Gaza council, but not under the authority of Abbas.

The plan, or what was published, doesn’t speak about what will happen to Hamas weapons and combatants, although the plan was reported to indicate that there would be no reconstruction of Gaza if Hamas continued to control Gaza. I assume that relates to Hamas’s control of weapons as well.

According to the media, Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump rejected the Arab League’s plan and are still backing the US-owned Gaza Riviera plan. They need to be reminded that Gaza doesn’t belong to Israel to give away to Trump. Palestinians in Gaza refuse to be ethnically cleansed. Despite the fact that many Palestinians in Gaza would be happy to find a new, safe home, the Trump plan has made this into a national issue and Palestinians refuse to surrender their homeland to any foreign occupier.

Between the lines, I want to note that the Palestinian demand to remain in the homeland in Gaza almost supersedes right now the demand for the right of return to areas inside of the sovereign state of Israel. I don’t think Palestinians are ready to give up the right of return but at the moment, the focus is on returning to their destroyed homes inside Gaza.

• Gershon Baskin is a political and social entrepreneur who has dedicated his life to peace between Israel and her neighbours. He’s a founding member of the Kol Ezraheiha – Kol Muwanteneiha (All of the Citizens) political party in Israel. He’s now the Middle East Director for ICO (the International Communities Organisation), a United Kingdom-based nongovernmental organisation.