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Israel heading for a third election

Increasingly, it seems inevitable that Israelis will be heading into a third round of elections. Until now, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refused to concede that he is unable to form a government. But at the same time, he has not allowed any other member of his Likud party to try to do so.

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Israel

PAULA SLIER

Netanyahu has also made sure he has the full support of the right-wing bloc of parties, guaranteeing him 55 knesset (parliament) seats. They have assured him they will back only him to form the country’s next government.

And he is so certain that his rival, Blue and White party leader Benny Gantz, cannot become the next prime minister, he is now expected to give his mandate to form a majority coalition back to President Reuven Rivlin. He will then will pass it onto Gantz. Legally, Gantz will then have 21 days to effectively fail in forming a new government.

The only party Gantz can approach that isn’t already signed up to Netanyahu is Avigdor Lieberman’s Israel Our Home. Gantz has 54 knesset seats under his belt and with Lieberman’s eight, he would win a majority of 62 seats. But Lieberman will never agree to join forces with the left-wing Zionist Meretz party or the Arab faction that are part of Gantz’s coalition. Netanyahu knows this. Gantz knows this. Rivlin knows this. Israelis know this. The only way out seems to be to call for a new election. 

But how another election, possibly to be held in February or March next year, will break the political deadlock is unclear. The latest polls suggest it won’t, and that almost all parties will receive the same number of knesset seats they currently have.

The only variable could be Lieberman. Over the past two elections, his party has grown stronger. How his supporters decide to vote will be critical. If they, frustrated by the situation, decide not to vote for him a third time and instead vote for other parties in the right-wing bloc, Netanyahu could win the majority he craves.

But, emboldened by Lieberman’s strong show of leadership and his insistence on separating state and religion – a key issue, particularly to the Russian voters who support him – they could choose to remain with him.

The chances of Lieberman and Netanyahu working together seem almost impossible as they despise one another intensely. Still, after attacking each other so fiercely during the election campaign, they agreed to meet last week. That meeting lasted less than an hour and failed to make any progress, but it showed that anything is possible when it comes to Israeli politics. 

Meanwhile the right-wing parties are weak, split, and lack clear direction. Who knows how they will fare in a third election?

One solution out of the impasse could be a national unity government between the two biggest parties of Netanyahu and Gantz. But negotiations to achieve this have failed so far. Gantz has refused to sit in a coalition with Netanyahu for as long as the prime minister is facing corruption charges. Gantz is hoping that another prominent Likud figure might lead a breakaway within the party, and join forces with him.

For a few short hours last Saturday, that seemed possible. Likud MK Gideon Sa’ar, a former education and interior minister who commands a loyal following within the party, tweeted that he would challenge Netanyahu for control of Likud if leadership primaries were to be held. But Sa’ar signalled that until then, he would back his potential rival. The idea was swiftly shelved amid reports that Netanyahu realised he had little to gain and much to lose by holding it.

Another option on the table has been a possible power-sharing deal and rotating premiership between the Likud and Blue and White parties. But the sides have been unable to agree who would be prime minister first under such an arrangement.

Gantz was prepared to entertain the idea, but his co-leaders reportedly warned him that it would be his end – Netanyahu would break the agreement, and make his life difficult.

What’s clear is that Netanyahu is fighting desperately to retain the premiership for no other reason than that he can push forward legislation that would give him immunity from the three corruption charges he’s facing.

On Monday night, the fourth and last day of his pre-indictment hearings wrapped up. Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit now has until December to decide whether or not to close the cases against the premier.

Either way, that decision will come with Netanyahu serving as prime minister – possibly in rotation with Gantz or some other solution, or as a transitional prime minister as the country heads into a third election.

If he’s indicted, it could take months before the trial begins, and Netanyahu could ask for a plea deal instead. As prime minister, he’d be under no legal obligation to resign from office without a conviction. Israeli law states that ministers must vacate their posts if charged, but prime ministers can potentially stay on until all appeal processes have been exhausted.

If convicted in a trial, Netanyahu could face up to 10 years in prison. He’s already the first prime minister in Israel’s history to be subjected to a pre-indictment hearing on a series of serious criminal charges. He might be Israel’s longest serving prime minister, but he’s also the first to be holding office while on trial.

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Israel-UAE deal brings hope of further normalisation

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Bahrain, Kuwait, Mauretania, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia… will these be the next Arab or Muslim states to establish full diplomatic and economic ties with Israel?

They could be, if the seeds of moderation and normalisation sprout successfully in the wake of the Israel-United Arab Emirates (UAE) deal.

Unthinkable a decade ago, the new discourse in the Middle East is about peace and prosperity, rather than the Palestinians.

This message emerged from a Zoom webinar on Monday night, ‘Israel/UAE Deal: Insights from behind the scenes’, hosted by the South African Zionist Federation. Moderated by Mpho Tsedu, chief executive of the Institute of Foreign Affairs, the speakers were Dr Nir Boms, a research fellow at Tel Aviv University and member of the Israeli Council on Foreign Relations, and Haisam Hassanein from Egypt, an expert on commercial diplomacy in the Middle East, recently based in Abu Dhabi.

On 13 August, the UAE became the third Arab country to formally recognise Israel’s right to exist, following Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994. The telephone lines have been unblocked, and an El Al flight overflew Saudi airspace for the first time last week as it brought diplomats and businesspeople to Abu Dhabi. Embassies are set to open in both states soon.

Dubbed the ‘Abraham Accord’, this deal did not emerge overnight. Relations were subterranean for decades. There was substantial interaction by entrepreneurs, academics, and civil society organisations before an elite peace deal was struck. Some 500 Israeli companies already operate in the UAE, according to Boms.

“It was the right time to bring these relations into the open, from under the table,” Boms said. “It was a win-win-win formula for Israel, the United States (US) [which backed the deal] and the UAE. Their interests aligned.”

The agreement supports Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political approach. US President Donald Trump could do with a foreign policy win heading into the November elections, to show the world and his constituency that he can, in fact, make a deal. For the UAE, it promised closer collaboration with both countries, including for military hardware and Israel’s high-tech knowhow.

“This agreement offers Israel the greatest chance to restore its image in the region,” Hassanein said. “It has been seen through the prism of Arab nationalism since the 1950s, and was negatively portrayed. The peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan never resulted in normalising people-to-people relations.” The Arab countries punished their citizens for drawing closer to Israel, which had a chilling effect.

Hassanein sees the Israel-UAE deal differently. Both sets of leaders and businesspeople have given interviews on each other’s TV stations and in newspapers. Intellectuals in both countries have supported the accords. Soon, Muslims from around the world may be praying at the Al Aqsa Mosque on the Temple Mount by travelling through Abu Dhabi. The geopolitical centre of the Arab world has shifted from Cairo, Damascus, and Baghdad to the capital cities of the Persian Gulf.

Neither analyst was naïve enough to believe this rapprochement would be universally praised. As expected, there has been opposition for the UAE’s enemies, including Iran, Qatar, and Turkey. Much of the Arab media has rubbished the deal. “But it has opened the door for more moderate voices to speak up for the first time, to speak about the advantages of peace,” Hassanein said.

Boms said that the deal could break a stalemate. “Ten years ago, everything was seen through the lens of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Arab Spring changed that paradigm, but it ushered in an Islamist Winter … the Gulf States are worried about Shi’a radicalism from Iran and Sunni radicalism from ISIS and the Muslim Brotherhood, and their interests align with Israel’s.”

Hassanein noted that there is a difference between the older generation of Arab nationalists that blamed everything on Israel, and a younger generation that recognises the havoc Iran is causing. Boms agreed, noting that 70% of the Middle East’s population is under the age of 30.

Boms said the UAE offers a positive third way, different from the Islamism of Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood, and the anti-normalisation and delegitimisation strategy of the Palestinian Authority. “The Palestinians have to realise that the train may leave without them,” said Boms. “If this deal works, if it brings better medicines, technology and jobs, it’s an alternative to old ideologies. It must therefore show tangible results and progress.”

There are early signs that this normalisation can spread to the region and to Africa. Malawi is opening an embassy in Jerusalem and Serbia, and Kosovo and Mali are talking about moving their embassies from Tel Aviv. The UAE is the only place in the Arab world where the Jewish population is growing, and a kosher restaurant has opened in Abu Dhabi.

Boms said this new discourse and mindset made South Africa’s support for the delegitimisation of Israel “obsolete”.

Asked Hassanein, “Who should South Africa applaud and support? Those demonstrating peace, tolerance and acceptance, or those who destroy and have no vision?”

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Malawi may be first African country to open embassy in Jerusalem

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The president of Malawi has said that his country would open an embassy in Jerusalem, making it the first African country to take this step, either for a diplomatic office or an embassy.

Local analysts say this is a significant move and may have been influenced by the recent ‘Abraham Accords’ between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Malawian President Dr Lazarus Chakwera made the announcement on Saturday. “The reforms will also include a review of our diplomatic presence, including our resolve to have new diplomatic missions in Lagos, Nigeria, and Jerusalem, Israel. I will be sharing more details about this in the near future,” he said as he addressed his country’s parliament. He became president in June 2020. Although he spoke of a diplomatic mission, experts believe he is referring to an embassy.

Chakwera was in Israel in November 2019 and visited Jerusalem, including the Old City and the Western Wall. Malawi is a mostly Christian country with 19.2 million inhabitants. Israel’s non-resident ambassador to Malawi, Oded Joseph, is based in Nairobi, Kenya.

On Sunday, chief Palestinian peace negotiator Saeb Erekat announced that the Palestinian Authority would sever relations with any country that opens an embassy in Jerusalem. Within Malawi, a group of concerned citizens voiced their opposition to the plan, according to the Nyasa Times. “We object to having a Malawi embassy in Jerusalem. If Malawi is to open an embassy in Israel, let it be approved by parliament, and the mission should be in Tel Aviv,” said a member of the group, Mussa Ibrahim.

The head of the African Governance and Diplomacy Programme at the South African Institute of International Affairs, Steven Gruzd, says: “The announcement could be connected to the positive momentum generated by the UAE deal.

“Remember, Chakwera is a newly-elected president in a court-ordered rerun election in Malawi,” says Gruzd. “He is setting out his governing agenda. Although both countries have maintained relations since 1964, neither has had an embassy in the other country.”

Gruzd says the announcement is significant. “If a small and resource-strapped country like Malawi sees opening an embassy in Jerusalem as strategic for its interests, it may encourage others to move their embassies from Tel Aviv. It may also be a move to draw closer to the Trump administration. Once it is opening an embassy, it does not make sense to open in Tel Aviv and then have to move.”

He believes the move may encourage other countries to think about opening embassies in Jerusalem. “It may well have a demonstration effect. In the last five years, Prime Minister Netanyahu has put considerable effort into wooing African states and breaking the anti-Israel bloc in forums like the United Nations.

“These efforts seem to be paying off. The decision to move embassies is a highly politicised one, and not without risks. So far, only Guatemala has followed the United States lead on moving its embassy. Kosovo, Serbia, and Mali are said to be considering it. But sovereign states will make their own choices.”

Local political analyst Dr Ralph Mathekga says: “I think the opposition victory in Malawi provides an interesting turn of events, and anomaly in the region. I do not find it surprising the country is intending to open an embassy in Jerusalem – this seems to usher different politics in the country.

“Malawi is trending an interesting path that has not been seen in the region. A response to this on a regional level is difficult to anticipate, in the sense that most member countries on the continent seem to prioritise a bilateral relationship with Israel, while at the same time maintaining solidarity on the Palestine matter at the United Nations level or at a multilateral level,” he adds.

“The global community would watch in anticipation how Malawi might further break the ranks with other countries in the region or the continent on Israel matters or other matters. A lot is possible with Malawi, yet one cannot tell exactly how it will go.”

Sara Gon, head of strategic engagement at the Institute of Race Relations, also believes that the UAE deal has opened the space for Malawi, even though it is not a Muslim country.

“I suspect that it has wanted to support Israel wholeheartedly hence going for an embassy in Jerusalem, but the opprobrium that has faced the United States for the move has held it back,” she says. “The UAE deal makes it less risky. I think the fact that it is going to Jerusalem signals that Malawi wants a completely normal relationship with Israel – no-holds-barred. The intention is a good, solid relationship.”

Looking at how this may impact Israel’s relationships with other African countries and if they will also think about opening embassies in Jerusalem, she says: “I think they might, on the basis that in diplomacy there are usually other countries who want to make the same move but they need just one country to make the first move. I think this is particularly so with the majority of Christian countries who are tired of having to show support to the Palestinians and hatred against Israel just because they belong to the block of what were once ‘non-aligned states’.”

Regarding the global community’s response if Malawi went ahead with this, Gon says she “suspects it will be more muted than previously, except of course from the Palestinian Authority, Hamas, Iran, Hezbollah, etcetera”.

She continues: “The problem is they have nothing to offer Malawi, so they’ll be ignored. Obviously, Malawi is desperately poor and not particularly influential, and it needs what Israel can offer it, but it is a start.”

“The South African Zionist Federation warmly welcomes Malawi’s decision to establish an embassy in Jerusalem as the recognised capital of Israel,” says its national chairperson Rowan Polovin. “This news is part of a momentous tide of improved relations between Israel, the Middle East, and Africa. We encourage the South African government to participate in this momentum of improved relations that Israel is achieving across the world, and share in the benefits that it will bring.”

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Arab-Israeli actor finds himself with Fauda

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For Arab-Israeli actor Ala Dakka, a character isn’t just a role. It’s another identity. Known to millions as Bashar the boxer from hit Israeli TV series Fauda, the 25-year-old superstar commits himself to acting in the most authentic way possible, and his career is on the rise.

Dakka shared stories from on and off the set with South Africans this past Saturday night in a live Zoom event hosted by the SA Jewish Report in partnership with the South African Zionist Federation and World Zionist Organization.

Born to Muslim parents, Dakka was raised in Be’er Sheva, surrounded by a predominantly Jewish population. “I grew up in the Jewish community, and throughout my life, I wondered where I belonged,” he said. “I didn’t know where to put myself. As a kid, I just wanted to be popular, so I decided to be friends with everyone.

“My life was pretty usual. I didn’t experience racism, though I knew I was different, and it made some things a little harder. I grew up in a beautiful mixture of all kinds of identities that you find in Israel. At the time, though, I cared only about soccer.”

A career in acting was never a foregone conclusion, says Dakka. In fact, he set his heart on becoming a singer, but only towards the end of his high-school career.

“I never sang before I was 17,” he laughed. “It was only in Grade 12 that I stood on a stage and sang. It really came late for me. Only when I turned 22 did I feel I wanted to be an actor, and until today, I’m not sure if I will be an actor for the rest of my life. I’ll just go with the flow.”

Dakka spent a year doing volunteer work with children in Bat Yam after matriculating, and when he contemplated a career, his family wanted him to pursue law.

“My dad is a lawyer, and he really wanted me to go to law school,” he says. “I wasn’t sure, but after volunteering, I realised that I wanted to do something that had nothing to do with law or university just yet. I wanted to be a singer.”

Dakka auditioned on the Israeli version of The Voice, but his initial reception wasn’t too encouraging. None of the judges turned their chairs when he performed, casting doubt on his aspirations.

“It was heartbreaking,” he says. “It took me some time to be willing to try again as an artist. I haven’t been back on stage as a musician since then, but I decided then to become an actor. I’m still optimistic about going back to music one day but acting quickly became the best thing in my life.”

Dakka honed his skills, starring in productions at his local theatre in Be’er Sheva, slowly growing in ability and confidence. He eventually auditioned for roles in television and film, landing his first screen role in an Israeli comedy series before starring in his first film, Beyond the Mountains and Hills, in 2016. More was to follow.

“The roles came one after the other, and I started making a living as an artist, which is a lot more than you can wish for,” Dakka says. “My parents were very scared, afraid I wouldn’t be able to support myself or a family. They’re still scared, but they saw I could be successful.”

Dakka clinched his now famous role in Fauda last year after hearing about the role of Bashar in July.

“I signed up at the gym and started running, slowly changing my way of living,” he says. “I was a smoker, and used to wake up late. I realised I needed to give it 100%, so I committed to getting up to go to gym and change my state of mind. It wasn’t easy, but it gave me a new opening in life.”

After auditioning in July, Dakka was informed that he had landed the role only in December. He says he took to the role immediately, finding a boxing coach and giving himself completely to the part. Even his family seemed to welcome the development.

“My family admits that I’m talented, and my dad says I should be proud of myself,” Dakka says. “Since I started, my family has started believing in me more and more, and it’s brought me closer to them. They really like the show, and are proud of what I have done.”

“The role in Fauda taught me how much you need to put yourself through for a role. I was never an athlete, so I needed to learn how to be one first. My commitment has enabled me to make a living and be proud of what I do, so I enjoy every moment.”

While shooting scenes can be gruelling, Dakka enjoys the time he shares with his co-stars on and off set.

“It’s a 12-hour day,” he says. “It’s tough, but it’s fun, and it’s what we love doing. We want it to be unique. We always try to make it the best we can for the audience so they can enjoy it and feel it’s authentic.”

There’s is a real bond on set, he says. “We spend hours together. We’ve had parties together, and we’re still in touch today. As an actor, you work with a team and have to make sure everyone feels comfortable. If one person is upset on set, we all feel it. We build connections between us, and we share the same love.”

Dakka has received mixed reviews from fans and detractors of the series, but says he welcomes all views because the show itself presents a variety of viewpoints.

Fauda talks about a conflict and its complexities,” he says. “How good people become evil or how evil people become good. The good and bad is so mixed, you never know what’s actually good or bad.

“The fact that it talks about the complexity of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is what’s making a change. People are talking about it, and the fact they are is a good thing.”

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