Historian warns authoritarianism is back

Authoritarian leaders are no longer united by ideology but by a shared determination to protect their power, wealth, and influence, warns Pulitzer Prize-winning American historian Anne Applebaum. 

She spoke with Centre for Development and Enterprise (CDE) executive director Ann Bernstein during a CDE webinar on Monday 20 July. 

The discussion explored Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the erosion of democratic institutions, the future of Europe, and the growing global influence of authoritarian governments. 

Applebaum argued that democracies around the world have failed to appreciate how closely authoritarian governments cooperate while liberal democracies struggle to respond to new threats, ranging from disinformation to political interference. 

A staff writer for The Atlantic and author of several books on totalitarianism and democracy, she said her interest in modern authoritarianism intensified when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. 

“I watched the invasion of Crimea and thought, ‘Oh my gosh, I know exactly what’s happening’,” she said. “This is the same playbook that the Red Army used in Eastern Poland and Eastern Germany in 1944 and 1945.” 

The invasion demonstrated that many of the tactics she had studied as a historian were re-emerging in contemporary politics. 

But modern authoritarian states differed from those of the 20th century because they were connected less by political ideology than by shared interests, she said. 

She argued that countries including Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea increasingly exchanged surveillance technology, policing methods, and online tactics designed to suppress dissent. They also exploited international financial systems to hide wealth and protect corrupt elites. 

More fundamentally, she said, these governments shared a hostility to democratic values. “They understand that ideas like transparency, accountability, the rule of law, independent courts, independent media, and legal opposition are a direct threat to their forms of power.” 

Applebaum said anti-corruption campaigns often became the greatest threat to authoritarian governments because they challenged the financial systems that sustained those in power. 

She cited Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s anti-corruption movement as one example. Hong Kong’s democracy movement and Taiwan’s democratic system also represented alternatives that authoritarian governments regarded as dangerous. 

Bernstein asked whether Hungary’s recent election result offered hope that illiberal governments could be defeated through democratic means. Applebaum distinguished between dictatorships and what she described as illiberal democracies, where elected governments gradually weaken democratic safeguards while maintaining the appearance of democratic rule. 

She said former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán had spent years changing electoral rules, weakening independent media, and concentrating economic power among political allies. “The loss of transparency meant that the system became really profoundly corrupt.” 

Over time, she said, economic decline, failing public services, and growing public dissatisfaction had undermined the government’s credibility despite its dominance of the media. “The clash between propaganda and reality became so manifest that even the powerful state propaganda wasn’t enough.” 

Applebaum said Hungary’s opposition campaign also demonstrated the value of direct engagement with voters. Rather than focusing on divisive cultural issues, opposition leader Péter Magyar had concentrated on economic concerns, transparency, and the rule of law, while travelling extensively to meet communities across the country. He became prime minister. 

Turning to Ukraine, Applebaum rejected the argument that NATO expansion provoked Russia’s invasion. She described the conflict as an imperial war driven by President Vladimir Putin’s desire to rebuild Russian influence while crushing a neighbouring democracy that presented an alternative political model. 

She said Ukraine’s democratic movements, particularly the 2014 Maidan Revolution, embodied precisely the values authoritarian leaders feared. “The Russians expected it to be three weeks,” she said of the invasion. “Instead, what happened was that the Ukrainians fought back.” 

Applebaum said Ukraine’s resistance had transformed modern warfare through the use of drones, electronic warfare, and technological innovation. She also argued that Russia had successfully influenced opinion in parts of the Global South by portraying itself as an opponent of Western colonialism despite acting as an imperial power. 

Asked about United States President Donald Trump’s relationship with Putin, Applebaum suggested Trump’s longstanding business interests in Russia and admiration for leaders who projected strength shaped his approach. “I think it’s possible that he genuinely believed that he was friends with Putin. He was just very surprised to learn that the Russians have a different set of interests bigger than him.” 

Applebaum said parts of the current United States administration no longer viewed America as the leader of the democratic world and saw less value in promoting democratic ideals internationally. 

Looking ahead, she said Europe faced difficult choices but had opportunities to strengthen its security, economy, and technological capacity through increased defence investment. 

Asked which democratic institutions were hardest to rebuild after periods of authoritarian rule, Applebaum identified the judiciary. “Once you’ve undermined the ethos and the independence of the judiciary, it’s something that’s very hard to put back into the system.” 

She expressed concern about the growing influence of technology companies over the information people consume and the spread of politically motivated disinformation. “The people who now actually control what everyone is able to see are people who are engineers in California who don’t necessarily have the interests of democracy first in mind,” she said. 

Although some countries, including Brazil and member states of the European Union, had introduced measures to tackle online disinformation, Applebaum said no government had yet found a complete solution that protected both democracy and freedom of expression. She concluded that democracies needed to recognise how dramatically authoritarianism had evolved if they hoped to defend their institutions in the years ahead.