IDF report – a reckoning for Israel’s diaspora

Two weeks after its release, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF’s) internal probe into the catastrophic failures of 7 October 2023 continues to send shockwaves through Jewish communities worldwide including in South Africa.

Published on 28 February 2025, the report has been met with a mix of dismay, introspection, and calls for accountability, both in Israel and among the diaspora.

For Israel and its diaspora, including South African Jewry, the document is more than a military reckoning; it’s a clarion call to confront uncomfortable truths and rethink long-held assumptions about security, leadership, and resilience.

The report doesn’t mince words: it labels the IDF’s inability to foresee and repel Hamas’s unprecedented assault a “complete failure”. It details a cascade of complacency, misjudgements, and operational breakdowns that left southern Israel defenceless as 1 154 Hamas Nukhba fighters breached the border.

On the night of 6 October 2023, five warning signs flashed red: mass activation of Israeli SIM cards in Hamas’s possession; unusual border activity flagged by female spotters; and more. Yet, senior officers, including Southern Command Chief Major-General Yaron Finkelman, dismissed them as routine. Fearing that heightened alertness might tip off Hamas and compromise intelligence sources, they opted for inaction. By 06:29 the next morning, the Gaza Division was overrun, and the IDF’s response was plunged into chaos, delaying a counteroffensive until the damage was irreversible.

For years, the IDF had underestimated Hamas, assuming that the group was deterred after its 2021 clash with Israel and preoccupied with governing Gaza rather than plotting large-scale aggression. The Military Intelligence Directorate pegged Yahya Al-Sinwar, Hamas’s leader, as a pragmatist averse to escalation, a misreading the report calls a “decade-long misperception”. This hubris was compounded by an overreliance on technological fixes like the billion-dollar border fence, and a misplaced faith in early warning systems. Hamas’s tunnel networks, dismissed as degraded, were quietly expanding, enabling a “massive buildup” of military capacity.

Complicating matters further, Israel’s policy of allowing Qatar to funnel millions of dollars into Gaza, intended to stabilise the region and fund humanitarian efforts, backfired. While Qatar denies that its aid directly fuelled Hamas’s 7 October attack, various sources, including Israeli intelligence and expert analyses, suggest that the funds were diverted, either directly or indirectly, to bolster Hamas’s military wing. The Qatari government has accused Israel’s Shin Bet of “false accusations”, insisting that its aid was co-ordinated with Israel to maintain calm. Yet the report implies that this financial lifeline, however well-intentioned, emboldened Hamas, exposing a fatal flaw in Israel’s strategy of containment through cash.

The probe also reveals how the IDF misjudged Hamas’s focus, believing that the group was stoking unrest in the West Bank rather than preparing a Gaza-based invasion. Israel was bracing for a multi-front assault from regional militias, not a concentrated strike from Gaza alone. Hamas’s timing was no accident, exploiting three pressure points: provocative ultranationalist Jewish activities at the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, a site sacred to both Muslims and Jews; Israel’s harsh treatment of Palestinian prisoners under its far-right government; and the perception of a fractured Israeli society, reeling from domestic protests over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s judicial reforms.

Today, as Israel navigates a fragile ceasefire with Hamas and rising tensions with Hezbollah in Lebanon, the report’s lessons loom large. Just this week, Israel imposed a total blockade on Gaza, demanding the release of the remaining hostages, a hardline stance shaped by the bitter memory of 7 October. As negotiators head to Doha to resume ceasefire talks, the blockade and accompanying threats signal a tougher, less compromising Israel. The report’s revelations about misreading Hamas’s intent resonate anew. Is Hamas bluffing now, or quietly gearing up for another strike?

In Israel, the fallout has been seismic. Major-General Herzi Halevi, the IDF Chief of Staff, resigned in early March 2025, accepting responsibility for the “failure”, a move lauded by some as a rare act of honour but decried by others as a scapegoat gesture masking deeper systemic rot. Netanyahu, who has stonewalled political inquiries into the debacle, faces intensifying pressure. The report subtly criticises government policies, like the Qatari funding scheme, that may have emboldened Hamas, though it stops short of naming names. Eyal Zamir, sworn in as IDF Chief of Staff on 5 March 2025, inherits a military vowing to “achieve victory”, as Netanyahu insists, but wary of repeating past overconfidence.

For South African Jews, the report strikes a personal chord. Our community, though geographically distant, is emotionally tethered to Israel’s triumphs and traumas. The massacre of 7 October shattered the myth of Israeli invincibility, a cornerstone of Zionist pride that many of us grew up cherishing. The IDF’s transparency in airing its failures, unlike nations that bury such debacles, offers a bittersweet point of pride. Yet it also prompts soul-searching: how do we reconcile our support for Israel with its vulnerabilities? How do we engage with a homeland that, for all its democratic openness, grapples with leadership missteps and regional volatility?

The report isn’t just a post-mortem; it’s a blueprint for reform. It calls for sharper intelligence analysis; a shift away from technology-driven deterrence; and a cultural rejection of complacency. These are mandates Zamir must now enact amid Gaza’s blockade and Lebanon’s simmering front. For the diaspora, it’s a reminder that Israel’s security isn’t a given but a collective responsibility requiring vigilance and critical engagement.

As Pesach nears, the report’s timing feels almost biblical. The exodus from Egypt, which we’ll soon commemorate, celebrates liberation through faith and readiness, qualities Israel must rediscover. For South African Jews, it’s a moment to reflect on our role in that story. Do we merely cheer from the sidelines, or do we advocate for an Israel that learns from its failures? The IDF probe, two weeks on, isn’t just Israel’s reckoning, it’s ours too.

• Paula Slier is the founder and chief executive of Newshound Media International and former Middle East and Africa bureau chief for RT.