SA faces ‘ides of September’ as US relations sour

September, a month synonymous with renewal and new beginnings, will be the most challenging period in South Africa’s political and economic landscape due to actions likely to be taken by the United States (US) against the country.

The first of these is an end to the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), scheduled to expire in September. However, the new 30% tariffs introduced by the US for South Africa will likely override the existing AGOA conventions when they take effect in early August 2025. The second biggest issue will be the US Senate’s decision on the US-South Africa Bilateral Relations Review Act of 2025, which requires a review of the bilateral relationship between the US and South Africa, and identifying South African government officials and African National Congress (ANC) leaders eligible for the imposition of sanctions.

The ground is fertile in the US to act against the South African government, which is believed to have acted against the US’s national interests. The US has been critical of South Africa’s foreign policy, which, on many occasions, has gone against American national interests. This has been evident in divergent voting patterns on various United Nations (UN) platforms, where South Africa and the US have often taken opposing positions. Relations between the US and South Africa didn’t sour during the Trump administration, Joe Biden raised similar concerns about South Africa.

The ANC should be told, “You made your bed, now lie in it.” It has chosen to strengthen its alliances with geopolitical rivals to the West at the expense of decades of working partnerships with Western powers. It was shortsighted of the ANC to believe that there wouldn’t be actions or reactions from the US over the way it is being undermined by Africa’s powerful regional bloc.

Tension between the US and South Africa escalated in 2022, when South Africa was alleged by the US to have loaded the ship Lady R with armaments that would be used in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The South African government dismissed this allegation. In 2023, in the aftermath of attacks on Israel by Hamas on 7 October 2023, South Africa continued to support Hamas, a designated terror organisation by countries such as the US and the European Union (EU).

Former Minister of International Relations and Cooperation Dr Naledi Pandor kicked off a diplomatic storm when she agreed that she had held a telephonic conversation with the same Hamas, and offered humanitarian support to this vicious group that invaded Israel, killing more than 1 200 innocent civilians and kidnapping more than 250 people, some of whom are still being held in the tunnels of Gaza.

Just when we thought that the ANC would tone down its anti-US message, it did the unexpected by dragging Israel to the UN’s International Court of Justice (ICJ). Its legal basis was that Israel was committing genocidal acts in Gaza. This act by the South African government was seen as heroic by some; while others criticised it because it didn’t pose a viable solution to the longstanding Israel-Palestine conflict. It is possible that the ANC’s thinking at the time was to maximise its electoral fortunes, which subsequently dropped drastically to below 50% of the electorate. Its energy on the issue is draining because it is not yielding the political capital it planned.

If indeed, South Africa was genuine about fighting for the rights of vulnerable people around the world, it could have started with its own population, wherein 14 million people are living in dire poverty, not knowing what they will eat the following day. A country where a sizeable number of the youth is unemployed. A country that experiences 62 murders per day for the whole year, a number unmatched throughout the world, making us the murder capital. Still, the political leadership ignores what is affecting its people.

• Kenneth Mokgatlhe is a political analyst and consultant.