NICOLA MILTZ
Two such analysts, Paul Berkowitz and Wayne Sussman, have urged the community to cast their vote in the national election, scheduled for May.
Berkowitz, an economist and data analyst, told the SA Jewish Report this week that because South Africa adopts a proportional representative system, every vote can be used towards national and provincial seats. “The higher the turnout for a party, the more likely that that party will win seats,” he says.
In 2016, the Democratic Alliance (DA) was able to obtain 27% of the proportional representation vote in local government elections. Says Sussman, “The DA voters turned out to vote, and many ANC voters who were not satisfied with the party and then President Jacob Zuma stayed at home, with some voting for other parties. If a party’s base support group is not enthusiastic, and turnout for that party is muted, the party will experience a drop in percentage support at the polls.”
The two analysts revealed their research at a 2019 election presentation held at the Rabbi Cyril Harris Community Centre recently, including views about what could happen at the upcoming polls.
If the elections were held tomorrow, Sussman says, he believes the ANC would get between 57% and 62%, the DA between 19% and 23%, the EFF between 9% and 11%, The IFP would get 4%, and the remaining smaller parties would get the remaining 4% to 5% of the vote.
“I know that these projections are not ideal as the range for the ANC and the DA is pretty wide, but a lot will happen between now and election day,” he says.
“What fallout will the ANC experience once the lists for Parliament are finalised? Will the ANC campaign as a united party? Will the DA continue to have breaches of that minority vote firewall from 2016, or will that group of voters lend the party their support again in 2019?” All these [elements] will influence what happens, says Sussman.
Gareth van Onselen, political commentator and the head of politics and governance at the Institute of Race Relations tells of the most recent IRR poll of registered voters. “It put the ANC on 56%, the DA on 18%, and the EFF on 11%. However, if there is a 69% turnout, it put the ANC on 59%, the DA on 22%, and the EFF on 10%.”
Basing his forecast on current polls and information, Berkowitz predicts similar results, with the ANC getting 58%, the DA 22%, the EFF 11%, the IFP 3%, and others 6%.
The analysts agree that 2019 is arguably the most significant year for the ANC since it first came to power. Under the new leadership of President Cyril Ramaphosa, the party hopes to improve or – at the very least – retain dominance at the polls. Recent voter surveys suggest dwindling support, which threatens to drop the ANC’s national count below the 60% mark.
The experts say Ramaphosa has come with apologies and promises in the hope of rekindling public faith in the party. This follows a disastrous 2018, in which the effects were felt of state capture and major factional infighting. Ramaphosa has reiterated his commitment to a “new dawn”, but analysts question whether this will be enough to lure potential voters in May.
Van Onselen says the EFF is expected to make significant progress.
“If current trends hold, the EFF does seem set for some growth, which is significant given that it comes off a very small base. It is possible for the party to achieve 10%. In fact, there is a possible scenario in which the EFF is the only one of the big three parties actually to grow in the 2019 election.”
Things are not looking good for the DA, he said.
By way of explanation, he says the DA got 22% in 2014, and in order to have a successful election, the party will need to grow beyond that, and win Gauteng. If it runs a good campaign, it might be able to squeeze out some small growth. If it cannot win Gauteng outright, there may be a scenario where it, together with other opposition parties, can bring the ANC below 50% in the province.
The greatest challenge for the ANC is apathy among its voters. “It is not enough just to convince voters about what you stand for, you have to make sure that they actually vote on the day.”
The opposition parties’ concerns vary, says Van Onselen. “For the EFF, its biggest challenge is a rejuvenated ANC. Most of its growth has come from the ANC. So, if the ANC wins people back, that will hurt the EFF first and foremost. The DA, too, has a voter-apathy problem, particularly in the Western Cape. As things stand, no one really knows what the DA stands for,” he said.
Sussman says the public perception – and experience – of coalition governments has been more negative than positive. “Coalition governments are difficult. Often, small parties can have an outsize influence on the performance of that coalition government.”
The DA, he says, may have to turn to the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) and the Vryheidsfront Plus (VF+) in the Western Cape if it garners less than 50%. The ANC will hope that Patricia De Lille and her GOOD party damages the DA in the Western Cape provincial ballot, and that GOOD and the EFF will work with the ANC to form a coalition government.
In Gauteng, the ANC could fall just under 50%, says Sussman.
“I see the DA battling to work with the EFF on a provincial level. Smaller parties like the VF+ and the IFP will be more inclined to work with the DA, but I see David Makhura returning for a second term as premier, either with a small majority or with coalition partners.”
It’s a lot of guesswork aided by trend analysis and voter surveys. “We will continue to monitor by-election results and opinion polls, and the projections will no doubt be more fine-tuned the closer we get to election day,” Sussman says.
