Hopes and fears: what will become of New York City

New York City’s Kampala-born mayor-elect, 34-year-old Zohran Mamdani, raises fears and hopes among its workers and business owners; property owners and tenants; American progressives and conservatives; and interest from Jews and Muslims worldwide; as well as curiosity among Africans, particularly Ugandans and South Africans. 

It would be a mistake to view Mamdani purely on identity grounds as a Muslim. He is also young, although not the youngest ever New York City mayor, a progressive, and a socialist. He is an immigrant too, who became an American citizen in 2018. 

Right now, nobody really knows what to expect from the community activist and state legislator with a Bowdoin College Bachelor of Arts in African Studies and flimsy record of achievement, but there should be little doubt that he plans to change New York City. Having won 50.4% of the vote, he can dictate the direction of change in the short term, but over the medium and longer term, his power will depend on how successfully he solves the problems of New Yorkers. 

Mamdani swept all opponents before him, including the current mayor and a former New York governor, in a winning campaign that ignited the highest voter turnout in decades. He promised a lower cost of living and improved affordability for working-class New Yorkers; rent controls; city-owned grocery stores; free buses; higher minimum pay and benefits; expansion of childcare and other social supports; and progressive policies for schools and policing. 

As mayor, he will be confronted by the realities of actually governing the most complicated – and arguably most diverse and difficult to manage – city in the world. 

During the campaign, he played the game of combining pro-Palestinian activism and strong – sometimes extreme – criticism of Israel, while recognising Israel’s right to exist as a state; and condemned antisemitism while highlighting Islamophobia. This allowed him to connect with some Jewish community leaders and visit synagogues, while also drawing support from and speaking at pro-Palestinian events. 

However, digging into what he actually said should trouble people more, because his statement that Israel could exist, but not as a Jewish state, is sinister. There’s no state religion in Israel and all religions, including Islam, are protected. There are 22 countries that are called Islamic, many of whom expelled their Jewish population, and with that he has expressed no problem. Add to it that he is determined to boycott Israel and arrest its prime minister, but is willing to pose for pictures with major antisemites, and the picture is deeply troublesome. 

New York has the largest Jewish population outside Israel, and therefore the Jewish lobby is significant, but if Mamdani’s election attracts Muslims to the Big Apple, Muslim population growth might emulate that of London during the tenure of London Mayor Sadiq Khan, where Muslims now comprise 15% of London’s population. While different to Paris and London, Jewish life in New York City is likely to change as Muslim power grows in population and financial power, attracted and supported by its Muslim mayor. 

Israel should expect to be regarded as an enemy in New York’s City Hall in future, but Muslim leaders, including South Africans and Ugandans, will have a sympathetic reception at Gracie Mansion and are likely to reciprocate. The precedent is the sympathetic relationship of South Africa’s African National Congress with City Hall during the Dinkins administration. If Jewish money and power retreat, Muslim money and influence will probably be keen to replace it. 

However, Mayor Mamdani is unlikely to be able to govern as expected of campaigner Mamdani because there are simply too many contradictions, too little money – New York is financially strained – and too many promises to keep, not to mention many competing constituencies. His current popularity and power are likely to wane under the assault of reality over time. 

The question is what the Mamdani period will become? The youngest New York mayor ever, Hugh John Grant, served two terms during which his major achievements were in infrastructure, like burying electrical cables to prevent power outages due to storms; and establishing the Rapid Transit Commission in 1890 to plan New York City’s subway system. Re-election rewarded him for infrastructure improvements despite his administration facing corruption allegations tied to Tammany Hall. 

The second youngest New York City mayor, John Purroy Mitchel, known as the “Boy Mayor”, served one term, from 1914 to 1917. He was a reformist, focused on efficiency and modernisation. He cut government waste; reformed the police department; and improved public-health services. He also advocated for better urban planning and expanding the subway system. Neither dabbled in identity politics or geo-politics. 

Much will depend on whether Mamdani is re-elected, and if he wants to remain mayor, presiding over the “gorgeous mosaic” as Mayor Dinkins referred to New York’s diverse populations. New York mayors have been limited to two terms since 2010. 

If higher taxes, rising crime, and urban decay follow the implementation of Mamdani policies, as it did in the time of Dinkins, he will find re-election more difficult. If in addition, identity politics stir violent confrontation in New York City, the worm will have turned for the Big Apple. Success will require of Mamdani to step back from progressive policy excesses; steer clear of geo-politics; embrace business and avoid corporate flight due to high taxes; exercise financial discipline; protect Jews; reject identity politics; and crack down on crime to keep all New Yorkers safe and prosperous. 

Mamdani may yet have to execute an unprecedented policy and political U-turn to retain power and avoid his term becoming known as the time when New York City became, or nearly became, Mamdanistan. 

• François Baird is the South African-born founder and chairperson of Baird’s CMC, Baird’s US, and Calbridge Investments. He is also co-chairperson of Africa for Taylor Advisory, as well as the founder of the FairPlay anti-dumping trade movement. He is a distinguished fellow at the Energy Policy Research Foundation think tank in Washington, DC.